WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 5, 2026: PBE moves “67° or below” down to 23% from 37%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:01 UTC on Oct 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 4, 2026 at 23:27 UTCModel data as of Oct 4 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Fred Hsu on en.wikipedia · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

37%23%

67° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:01 UTC

Move−14 pts

Market at capture10%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 5, 2026?

67° or below · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday1%−22 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KNYC: high so far 68.0°F · latest 55.0°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 5 22:19Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 5 17:34Z PBE 9% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 17:34Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “67° or below” from 37% to 23% (−14 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 4 17:00Z → Oct 4 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 11% to 10%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 4 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 4 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 4 23:01Z (cutoff Oct 4 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “67° or below” from 37% to 23%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 73°F to 71°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 68°F to 69°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	17h	11h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	73°F	71°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	68°F	69°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 4 23:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“67° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 4 23:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 4 14:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	37
Oct 4 14:15Z	Kalshi mid	24
Oct 4 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	24
Oct 4 15:15Z	Kalshi mid	21
Oct 4 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	21
Oct 4 16:30Z	Kalshi mid	22
Oct 4 16:45Z	Kalshi mid	14
Oct 4 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	37
Oct 4 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 18:00Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 18:15Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 4 18:30Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 19:00Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 19:15Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 19:30Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 4 20:00Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 4 20:45Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 4 21:01Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 4 22:01Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 22:15Z	Kalshi mid	11
Oct 4 22:30Z	Kalshi mid	10
Oct 4 23:01Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	23
Oct 4 23:01Z	Kalshi mid	10

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 11% to 10%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 4 17:00Z	Oct 4 23:01Z
Data cutoff	Oct 4 17:00Z	Oct 4 23:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T12Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T18Z
PBE	37%	23%
Market at capture	11%	10%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

67° or below

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 3ca74b40-455d-431f-b722-2ea625a548d1
Compared with: 54d11035-6c39-4fad-a7d6-7310c6ad402e
Captured: Oct 4 23:01Z
Data cutoff: Oct 4 23:00Z
Market observation: 10% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLINYC (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLINYC (WFO OKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094728
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-05, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (CLINYC) for Oct 5, 2026, is less than 68° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.