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Philadelphia — photograph (Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 1, 2026: PBE moves “66° to 67°” down to 11% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 31. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 31 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%11%

66° to 67° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture5%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 1, 2026?

66° to 67° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE11%0 pts since publication
Kalshi4%−1 pts since publication
Gap+7

RESEARCH PBE Oct 31 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “66° to 67°” from 22% to 11% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 31 17:00Z → Oct 31 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 5%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 31 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 31 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 31 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 31 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “66° to 67°” from 22% to 11%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 64°F to 63°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
National Blend of Models forecast high64°F63°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 31 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“66° to 67°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31 14:02ZOct 31 18:31ZOct 31 23:00Z22%11%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 31 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 31 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 31 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 31 14:04ZKalshi mid8
Oct 31 14:06ZKalshi mid9
Oct 31 14:14ZKalshi mid8
Oct 31 14:16ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 14:18ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 14:54ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 14:56ZKalshi mid7
Oct 31 15:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 15:02ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 15:18ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 16:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 16:06ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 16:26ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 31 17:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 18:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 19:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 19:02ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 20:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 21:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 22:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.011
Oct 31 23:00ZKalshi mid5

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 5%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 31 17:00ZOct 31 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 31 17:00ZOct 31 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T18Z
PBE22%11%
Market at capture5%5%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

66° to 67°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
9208d309-7cf9-4310-958f-f02565936fa0
Compared with
868b25c2-e25c-4b63-85a2-eaab1b9c543d
Captured
Oct 31 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 31 23:00Z
Market observation
5% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-01, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Nov 1, 2026, is between 66-67° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.