Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 15, 2026: PBE moves “57° or above” up to 31% from 16%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
57° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC
Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 15, 2026?
57° or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING
- UPDATE · Nov 15 10:28Z PBE 11% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 10:28Z
- UPDATE · Nov 15 17:08Z PBE 50% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 17:00Z
- UPDATE · Nov 15 19:08Z PBE 18% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 18:23Z
- UPDATE · Nov 15 19:43Z PBE 33% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 19:43Z
Quick read
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “57° or above” from 16% to 31% (+15 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Nov 14 17:00Z → Nov 14 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
- A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Nov 14 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 14 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 14 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 14 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “57° or above” from 16% to 31%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 48°F to 49°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 54°F to 55°F.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance lead time | 17h | 11h | — |
| GFS MOS forecast high | 48°F | 49°F | yes |
| National Blend of Models forecast high | 54°F | 55°F | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14 15:02Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 2 |
| Nov 14 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 16 |
| Nov 14 23:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 31 |
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Nov 14 17:00Z | Nov 14 23:00Z |
| Data cutoff | Nov 14 17:00Z | Nov 14 23:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T12Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T18Z |
| PBE | 16% | 31% |
| Market at capture | — | — |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- a1de878c-fcab-4ab0-a34f-94a20d84f89d
- Compared with
- 46237b0a-340d-432d-8c8f-eb32439a78a8
- Captured
- Nov 14 23:00Z
- Data cutoff
- Nov 14 23:00Z
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.