Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 2, 2026: PBE moves “69° to 70°” up to 22% from 11%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:08 UTC on Nov 1. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
69° to 70° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:08 UTC
Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Nov 2, 2026?
69° to 70° · PRE-WINDOW
Quick read
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “69° to 70°” from 11% to 22% (+11 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Nov 1 17:00Z → Nov 1 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
- The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 1 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 1 23:08Z (cutoff Nov 1 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “69° to 70°” from 11% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 66°F to 67°F.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance lead time | 17h | 11h | — |
| National Blend of Models forecast high | 66°F | 67°F | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 15:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 22 |
| Nov 1 15:02Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Nov 1 15:06Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
| Nov 1 15:08Z | Kalshi mid | 4 |
| Nov 1 15:40Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
| Nov 1 15:42Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 16:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 16:08Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 11 |
| Nov 1 17:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 18:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 19:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 20:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 20:38Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 21:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 22:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 22:06Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 23:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 1 23:08Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 22 |
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Nov 1 17:00Z | Nov 1 23:08Z |
| Data cutoff | Nov 1 17:00Z | Nov 1 23:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T12Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T18Z |
| PBE | 11% | 22% |
| Market at capture | 2% | 2% |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- 63e7a7d1-10ba-471a-9ece-dad8436c67f5
- Compared with
- 655775c7-9a02-4636-963b-eb9f8d42fb88
- Captured
- Nov 1 23:08Z
- Data cutoff
- Nov 1 23:00Z
- Market observation
- 2% · captured with the snapshot
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-02, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.