WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 12, 2026: PBE moves “76° to 77°” up to 22% from 11%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:01 UTC and 17:01 UTC on Oct 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 11, 2026 at 17:06 UTCModel data as of Oct 11 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

11%22%

76° to 77° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:01 UTC → 17:01 UTC

Move+11 pts

Market at capture32%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 12, 2026?

76° to 77° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE22%0 pts since publication

Kalshi33%+1 pts since publication

Gap−11

RESEARCH PBE Oct 11 17:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “76° to 77°” from 11% to 22% (+11 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 11 11:00Z → Oct 11 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 11 14:01Z (data cutoff Oct 11 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 11 17:01Z (cutoff Oct 11 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “76° to 77°” from 11% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 73°F to 72°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 73°F to 74°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	23h	17h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	73°F	72°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	73°F	74°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 11 17:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“76° to 77°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 11 17:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 11 14:01Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	11
Oct 11 14:10Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 11 14:12Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 11 14:16Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 11 14:46Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 11 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 11 15:16Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 11 15:24Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 11 15:40Z	Kalshi mid	32
Oct 11 15:42Z	Kalshi mid	32
Oct 11 16:01Z	Kalshi mid	32
Oct 11 16:22Z	Kalshi mid	32
Oct 11 16:46Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 11 16:54Z	Kalshi mid	32
Oct 11 17:01Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	22
Oct 11 17:01Z	Kalshi mid	32

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 11 14:01Z	Oct 11 17:01Z
Data cutoff	Oct 11 11:00Z	Oct 11 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T12Z
PBE	11%	22%
Market at capture	—	32%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

76° to 77°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: c2682f2c-67f8-4a6e-a7b4-c41f0f89934a
Compared with: 53e44c25-4fc4-435d-b13f-e25e2a8f5a91
Captured: Oct 11 17:01Z
Data cutoff: Oct 11 17:00Z
Market observation: 32% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 12, 2026, is between 76-77° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.