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Philadelphia — photograph (Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 20, 2026: PBE moves “72° to 73°” up to 22% from 11%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 19. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 19 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

11%22%

72° to 73° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture40%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 20, 2026?

72° to 73° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday48%+26 pts since publication
Kalshi8%−32 pts since publication
Gap+40

At KPHL: high so far 71.6°F · latest 69.8°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 20 20:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 20 06:23Z PBE 33% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 06:23Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 20 17:33Z PBE 43% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 20 17:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “72° to 73°” from 11% to 22% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 19 11:00Z → Oct 19 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 19 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 19 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 19 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 19 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “72° to 73°” from 11% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 69°F to 70°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
National Blend of Models forecast high69°F70°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 19 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“72° to 73°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 19 14:02ZOct 19 15:31ZOct 19 17:00Z11%22%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 19 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 19 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 19 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 19 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.011
Oct 19 14:10ZKalshi mid46
Oct 19 14:12ZKalshi mid47
Oct 19 14:16ZKalshi mid48
Oct 19 14:18ZKalshi mid49
Oct 19 14:22ZKalshi mid50
Oct 19 14:26ZKalshi mid50
Oct 19 14:32ZKalshi mid48
Oct 19 14:48ZKalshi mid48
Oct 19 15:00ZKalshi mid48
Oct 19 15:16ZKalshi mid46
Oct 19 15:20ZKalshi mid47
Oct 19 15:30ZKalshi mid45
Oct 19 15:32ZKalshi mid44
Oct 19 15:38ZKalshi mid43
Oct 19 15:40ZKalshi mid43
Oct 19 16:00ZKalshi mid43
Oct 19 16:06ZKalshi mid44
Oct 19 16:10ZKalshi mid44
Oct 19 16:12ZKalshi mid45
Oct 19 16:16ZKalshi mid42
Oct 19 16:18ZKalshi mid41
Oct 19 16:20ZKalshi mid38
Oct 19 16:22ZKalshi mid39
Oct 19 16:24ZKalshi mid38
Oct 19 16:30ZKalshi mid38
Oct 19 16:56ZKalshi mid39
Oct 19 16:58ZKalshi mid40
Oct 19 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 19 17:00ZKalshi mid40

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 19 14:02ZOct 19 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 19 11:00ZOct 19 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-19T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-19T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-19T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-19T12Z
PBE11%22%
Market at capture—40%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

72° to 73°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
427de067-ce2d-4230-a450-34146a084854
Compared with
b9beceb7-80b7-4903-ba21-112a2bd41cef
Captured
Oct 19 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 19 17:00Z
Market observation
40% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-20, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 20, 2026, is between 72-73° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.