Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 23, 2026: PBE moves “65° to 66°” up to 22% from 11%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:01 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 22. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
65° to 66° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:01 UTC → 17:00 UTC
Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 23, 2026?
65° to 66° · PRE-WINDOW
Quick read
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “65° to 66°” from 11% to 22% (+11 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Oct 22 11:00Z → Oct 22 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
- The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 7% to 5%.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Oct 22 14:01Z (data cutoff Oct 22 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 22 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 22 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “65° to 66°” from 11% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 62°F to 63°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 62°F to 63°F.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance lead time | 23h | 17h | — |
| GFS MOS forecast high | 62°F | 63°F | yes |
| National Blend of Models forecast high | 62°F | 63°F | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 14:01Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 11 |
| Oct 22 14:01Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 22 14:06Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 22 14:08Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 22 14:18Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 22 14:21Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 22 14:40Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 22 14:42Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 22 14:44Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 22 14:48Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 22 15:00Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 22 15:06Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 22 16:00Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 22 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 22 |
| Oct 22 17:00Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 7% to 5%.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Oct 22 14:01Z | Oct 22 17:00Z |
| Data cutoff | Oct 22 11:00Z | Oct 22 17:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-22T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-22T06Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-22T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-22T12Z |
| PBE | 11% | 22% |
| Market at capture | 7% | 5% |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- 5961a299-d097-4ffd-b2cf-a06b0bbd6866
- Compared with
- 8ce0ffd2-838b-4a52-aff3-59762b2b03cd
- Captured
- Oct 22 17:00Z
- Data cutoff
- Oct 22 17:00Z
- Market observation
- 5% · captured with the snapshot
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-23, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.