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Philadelphia — photograph (Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 27, 2026: PBE moves “70° to 71°” down to 11% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 26. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 26 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%11%

70° to 71° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 27, 2026?

70° to 71° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE11%0 pts since publication
Kalshi2%0 pts since publication
Gap+9

RESEARCH PBE Oct 26 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “70° to 71°” from 22% to 11% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 26 17:00Z → Oct 26 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 26 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 26 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 26 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 26 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “70° to 71°” from 22% to 11%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 65°F to 66°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 68°F to 67°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
GFS MOS forecast high65°F66°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high68°F67°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 26 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“70° to 71°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26 14:00ZOct 26 18:30ZOct 26 23:00Z22%11%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 26 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 26 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 26 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 26 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 26 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 26 14:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 26 14:04ZKalshi mid5
Oct 26 14:06ZKalshi mid4
Oct 26 14:08ZKalshi mid3
Oct 26 14:10ZKalshi mid4
Oct 26 14:16ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 14:20ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 15:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 16:01ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 26 17:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 17:20ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 18:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 19:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 19:06ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 20:01ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 20:54ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 21:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 22:01ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 22:22ZKalshi mid2
Oct 26 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.011
Oct 26 23:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 26 17:00ZOct 26 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 26 17:00ZOct 26 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T18Z
PBE22%11%
Market at capture2%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

70° to 71°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
8084e6e3-abf6-4d63-8d01-42b2b339fbf4
Compared with
9861beb4-b296-4f2e-897d-79fa7cc8b7ed
Captured
Oct 26 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 26 23:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-27, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 27, 2026, is between 70-71° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.