Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 4, 2026: 64° to 65° — it happened. How PBE scored.
64° to 65°: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 5% against a 23% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Resolved Oct 5 11:06Z · verified against NWS CLI CLIPHL product 202610050603-KPHI-CDUS41-CLIPHL
Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 4, 2026?
64° to 65° · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: 64° to 65°: YES; official check 64 degF agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 5%; market at that moment 23%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.190, market 0.179 (n=6).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 4, 2026 resolved with 64° to 65°: YES. The venue settled at Oct 5 11:06Z (expiration value 64.00); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLIPHL product 202610050603-KPHI-CDUS41-CLIPHL — recorded 64 degF, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | YES | 29% (mkt 22%) | — | 5% (mkt 23%) |
| 63° or below | NO | 23% (mkt 6%) | — | 3% (mkt 4%) |
| 66° to 67° | NO | 27% (mkt 46%) | — | 15% (mkt 43%) |
| 68° to 69° | NO | 12% (mkt 23%) | — | 31% (mkt 34%) |
| 70° to 71° | NO | 5% (mkt 2%) | — | 30% (mkt 2%) |
| 72° or above | NO | 3% | — | 16% |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 6 contracts was 0.190 against 0.179 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.108 | 0.177 | 6 | 5 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.337 | 0.497 | 6 | 5 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.190 | 0.179 | 6 | 5 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.682 | 0.501 | 6 | 5 |
This event adds 6 resolved contracts to the model's live record (18 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | f2e9dc8d-bc38-4a28-8cb9-b0c37ea9b927 | a70d5a4d-9ae6-4631-bab3-ba4d709bac20 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 23% |
| 63° or below | pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | d0a28b5d-618c-45e5-9c2f-1c2d99c245a8 | 6bf89514-bbf2-4d9d-8281-6828b4a3ca99 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 4% |
| 66° to 67° | pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 48991e15-5b20-45d5-a312-4c52b9a15feb | 10a9abe6-9dff-4762-b556-de553bf44f06 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 43% |
| 68° to 69° | pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | cfc9b83a-b679-47e3-b43b-8dda88c0c46d | 99866953-93ca-44b8-8710-c08bfabe475e | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 34% |
| 70° to 71° | pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | cdb5a178-8cef-4e95-a2b1-d69b8260ad20 | b8ac21d5-4548-4f64-a570-c45072712319 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 2% |
| 72° or above | pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 03a78b17-42ab-4c93-9f82-4c10b07b6770 | 50b2c1d3-bcd4-4d5b-a695-006d18881103 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | — |
Source families: NWS CLI CLIPHL product 202610050603-KPHI-CDUS41-CLIPHL. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-04, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.