WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 5, 2026: PBE moves “74° to 75°” down to 11% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 4, 2026 at 17:03 UTCModel data as of Oct 4 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%11%

74° to 75° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−11 pts

Market at capture28%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 5, 2026?

74° to 75° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday36%+25 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KPHL: high so far 73.4°F · latest 57.2°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 5 22:23Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 4 23:01Z PBE 22% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 4 23:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 5 18:23Z PBE 47% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 18:23Z
UPDATE · Oct 5 22:23Z PBE 36% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 22:23Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “74° to 75°” from 22% to 11% (−11 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 4 11:00Z → Oct 4 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 4 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 4 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 4 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 4 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “74° to 75°” from 22% to 11%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 73°F to 72°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 72°F to 71°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	23h	17h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	73°F	72°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	72°F	71°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 4 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“74° to 75°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 4 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 4 14:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	22
Oct 4 14:15Z	Kalshi mid	17
Oct 4 14:45Z	Kalshi mid	22
Oct 4 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	26
Oct 4 15:15Z	Kalshi mid	25
Oct 4 15:30Z	Kalshi mid	25
Oct 4 15:45Z	Kalshi mid	25
Oct 4 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	25
Oct 4 16:30Z	Kalshi mid	27
Oct 4 16:45Z	Kalshi mid	26
Oct 4 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	11
Oct 4 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	28

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 4 14:00Z	Oct 4 17:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 4 11:00Z	Oct 4 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T12Z
PBE	22%	11%
Market at capture	—	28%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

74° to 75°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: f8cb2635-5247-4271-ac55-e9a518eb3eb5
Compared with: 670f89a9-340c-4054-a01e-fa2041c49da4
Captured: Oct 4 17:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 4 17:00Z
Market observation: 28% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-05, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 5, 2026, is between 74-75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.