WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 6, 2026: PBE moves “68° to 69°” up to 22% from 11%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:01 UTC on Oct 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 5, 2026 at 23:02 UTCModel data as of Oct 5 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

11%22%

68° to 69° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:01 UTC

Move+11 pts

Market at capture3%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 6, 2026?

68° to 69° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday3%−19 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KPHL: high so far 64.9°F · latest 51.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 6 22:18Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 6 19:03Z PBE 8% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 18:33Z
UPDATE · Oct 6 20:13Z PBE 25% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 20:13Z
UPDATE · Oct 6 21:18Z PBE 3% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 21:18Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “68° to 69°” from 11% to 22% (+11 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 5 17:00Z → Oct 5 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 4% to 3%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 5 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 5 23:01Z (cutoff Oct 5 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “68° to 69°” from 11% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 66°F to 65°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 65°F to 66°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	17h	11h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	66°F	65°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	65°F	66°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 5 23:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“68° to 69°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 5 23:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 5 14:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	11
Oct 5 14:00Z	Kalshi mid	7
Oct 5 14:06Z	Kalshi mid	6
Oct 5 14:14Z	Kalshi mid	6
Oct 5 14:16Z	Kalshi mid	6
Oct 5 14:32Z	Kalshi mid	7
Oct 5 14:36Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 5 15:01Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 5 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 5 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	11
Oct 5 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	4
Oct 5 17:12Z	Kalshi mid	4
Oct 5 18:00Z	Kalshi mid	4
Oct 5 19:00Z	Kalshi mid	4
Oct 5 19:16Z	Kalshi mid	3
Oct 5 19:18Z	Kalshi mid	3
Oct 5 19:44Z	Kalshi mid	3
Oct 5 20:00Z	Kalshi mid	3
Oct 5 21:00Z	Kalshi mid	3
Oct 5 22:01Z	Kalshi mid	3
Oct 5 23:01Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	22
Oct 5 23:01Z	Kalshi mid	3

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 4% to 3%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 5 17:00Z	Oct 5 23:01Z
Data cutoff	Oct 5 17:00Z	Oct 5 23:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T12Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T18Z
PBE	11%	22%
Market at capture	4%	3%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

68° to 69°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: df9ef34e-a41f-4475-b0fc-5a0721abd91e
Compared with: 6572d573-3cdc-4fcc-ae74-c8afdaa859c3
Captured: Oct 5 23:01Z
Data cutoff: Oct 5 23:00Z
Market observation: 3% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 6, 2026, is between 68-69° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.