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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 8, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” down to 11% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:01 UTC on Oct 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 7 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%11%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:01 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture52%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 8, 2026?

79° to 80° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday95%+84 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KPHL: high so far 80.1°F · latest 60.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 8 22:28Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 8 16:18Z PBE 21% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 16:18Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 8 17:08Z PBE 45% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 8 19:13Z PBE 63% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 18:18Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 8 19:18Z PBE 81% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 19:18Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 8 21:08Z PBE 94% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 20:23Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 22% to 11% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 7 17:00Z → Oct 7 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 46% to 52%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 7 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 7 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 7 23:01Z (cutoff Oct 7 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 22% to 11%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 78°F to 77°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 77°F to 76°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time17h11h—
GFS MOS forecast high78°F77°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high77°F76°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 7 23:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 7 14:02ZOct 7 18:31ZOct 7 23:01Z22%11%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 7 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 7 23:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 7 23:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 7 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 7 14:02ZKalshi mid31
Oct 7 14:04ZKalshi mid40
Oct 7 14:08ZKalshi mid39
Oct 7 14:10ZKalshi mid38
Oct 7 14:12ZKalshi mid38
Oct 7 14:14ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 14:16ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 14:28ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 14:32ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 14:34ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 14:44ZKalshi mid47
Oct 7 14:46ZKalshi mid47
Oct 7 14:54ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 14:56ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 15:00ZKalshi mid47
Oct 7 15:02ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 15:04ZKalshi mid40
Oct 7 15:08ZKalshi mid40
Oct 7 15:14ZKalshi mid41
Oct 7 15:16ZKalshi mid41
Oct 7 15:22ZKalshi mid40
Oct 7 15:32ZKalshi mid41
Oct 7 15:46ZKalshi mid39
Oct 7 15:58ZKalshi mid38
Oct 7 16:00ZKalshi mid36
Oct 7 16:10ZKalshi mid36
Oct 7 16:16ZKalshi mid37
Oct 7 16:32ZKalshi mid42
Oct 7 16:36ZKalshi mid44
Oct 7 16:38ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 16:42ZKalshi mid47
Oct 7 16:54ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 7 17:00ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 17:02ZKalshi mid43
Oct 7 17:06ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 17:20ZKalshi mid44
Oct 7 17:26ZKalshi mid44
Oct 7 17:32ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 18:00ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 18:10ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 18:18ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 18:24ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 18:26ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 18:56ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 19:00ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 19:06ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 19:12ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 19:16ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 19:36ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 19:38ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 19:42ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 19:46ZKalshi mid52
Oct 7 20:00ZKalshi mid52
Oct 7 20:18ZKalshi mid52
Oct 7 20:26ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 20:28ZKalshi mid52
Oct 7 20:56ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 20:58ZKalshi mid45
Oct 7 21:00ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 21:02ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 21:08ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 21:14ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 21:16ZKalshi mid46
Oct 7 21:18ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 21:20ZKalshi mid47
Oct 7 21:22ZKalshi mid47
Oct 7 21:28ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 21:38ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 21:46ZKalshi mid48
Oct 7 21:48ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 21:56ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 21:58ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 22:00ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 22:01ZKalshi mid50
Oct 7 22:05ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 22:15ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 22:27ZKalshi mid52
Oct 7 22:29ZKalshi mid52
Oct 7 22:55ZKalshi mid51
Oct 7 23:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.011
Oct 7 23:01ZKalshi mid52

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 46% to 52%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 7 17:00ZOct 7 23:01Z
Data cutoffOct 7 17:00ZOct 7 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T18Z
PBE22%11%
Market at capture46%52%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
ecdb7354-df8f-43d2-9329-5f12e115f52d
Compared with
90b74dd8-cd67-4667-b3e3-7bcf2b43b172
Captured
Oct 7 23:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 7 23:00Z
Market observation
52% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 8, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.