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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 9, 2026: PBE moves “76° to 77°” up to 22% from 11%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 8. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 8 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: 颐园居 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

11%22%

76° to 77° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture37%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 9, 2026?

76° to 77° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday92%+70 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KPHL: high so far 75.9°F · latest 60.8°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 22:23Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 9 06:28Z PBE 33% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 06:28Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 9 17:13Z PBE 46% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 17:13Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 9 19:18Z PBE 68% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 19:18Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 9 21:08Z PBE 88% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 20:28Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “76° to 77°” from 11% to 22% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 8 11:00Z → Oct 8 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 8 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 8 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 8 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “76° to 77°” from 11% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 73°F to 74°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
National Blend of Models forecast high73°F74°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“76° to 77°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 8 14:02ZOct 8 15:31ZOct 8 17:00Z11%22%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 8 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 8 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 8 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.011
Oct 8 14:10ZKalshi mid36
Oct 8 14:12ZKalshi mid40
Oct 8 14:14ZKalshi mid40
Oct 8 14:16ZKalshi mid41
Oct 8 14:20ZKalshi mid41
Oct 8 14:48ZKalshi mid42
Oct 8 14:54ZKalshi mid42
Oct 8 15:00ZKalshi mid39
Oct 8 15:02ZKalshi mid40
Oct 8 15:04ZKalshi mid40
Oct 8 15:08ZKalshi mid41
Oct 8 15:26ZKalshi mid41
Oct 8 15:32ZKalshi mid41
Oct 8 15:42ZKalshi mid38
Oct 8 15:46ZKalshi mid37
Oct 8 16:00ZKalshi mid37
Oct 8 16:10ZKalshi mid37
Oct 8 16:28ZKalshi mid36
Oct 8 16:32ZKalshi mid37
Oct 8 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 8 17:00ZKalshi mid37

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 8 14:02ZOct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 8 11:00ZOct 8 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T12Z
PBE11%22%
Market at capture—37%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

76° to 77°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
8cbde219-142e-45db-8cb9-b4631a8d33b8
Compared with
5f65396f-593c-4160-9113-84555d8618bf
Captured
Oct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 8 17:00Z
Market observation
37% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIPHL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPHL (WFO PHI); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013739
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-09, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (CLIPHL) for Oct 9, 2026, is between 76-77° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.