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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.32% or above” down to 69% from 85%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:50 UTC and 19:54 UTC on Oct 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 6 19:54ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

85%69%

5.32% or above · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:50 UTC → 19:54 UTC

Move−16 pts
Market at capture81%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.32% or above · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE56%−13 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 20:09Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 8 20:14Z PBE 49% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 20:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.32% or above” from 85% to 69% (−16 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 19:50Z → Oct 6 19:54Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 85% to 81%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 19:50Z (data cutoff Oct 5 19:50Z) and the one at Oct 6 19:54Z (cutoff Oct 6 19:54Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.32% or above” from 85% to 69%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.0 bp to 4.9 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.31% to 5.27%; Business days left from 18 to 17.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.0 bp4.9 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-052026-10-06—
Latest official par yield5.31%5.27%yes
Business days left1817yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.32% or above”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 5 07:42ZOct 6 19:54Z85%69%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 75% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 85% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 69% · Oct 6 19:54Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.075
Oct 3 19:30ZKalshi mid76
Oct 3 20:00ZKalshi mid76
Oct 3 21:00ZKalshi mid76
Oct 3 22:00ZKalshi mid76
Oct 4 01:30ZKalshi mid76
Oct 4 02:15ZKalshi mid76
Oct 4 03:45ZKalshi mid76
Oct 4 04:00ZKalshi mid76
Oct 5 10:16ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 10:18ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 10:26ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 10:48ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 11:02ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 12:48ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 12:52ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 12:56ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 12:58ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 13:00ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 13:10ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 13:12ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 13:16ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 13:28ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 13:34ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 13:36ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 14:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 14:18ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 14:30ZKalshi mid88
Oct 5 14:32ZKalshi mid89
Oct 5 14:36ZKalshi mid91
Oct 5 14:44ZKalshi mid90
Oct 5 15:01ZKalshi mid92
Oct 5 15:04ZKalshi mid94
Oct 5 15:08ZKalshi mid93
Oct 5 15:24ZKalshi mid95
Oct 5 15:30ZKalshi mid95
Oct 5 15:32ZKalshi mid94
Oct 5 16:06ZKalshi mid97
Oct 5 16:18ZKalshi mid97
Oct 5 16:28ZKalshi mid96
Oct 5 16:34ZKalshi mid96
Oct 5 17:00ZKalshi mid98
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.085
Oct 5 19:50ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 19:58ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 20:00ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 20:02ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 20:16ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 20:22ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 20:24ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 20:36ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 20:52ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 22:01ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 22:04ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 22:06ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 22:16ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 23:01ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 23:16ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 23:18ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 23:34ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 23:54ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 23:58ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 00:02ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 01:01ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 01:14ZKalshi mid85
Oct 6 01:16ZKalshi mid86
Oct 6 01:26ZKalshi mid89
Oct 6 01:40ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 01:46ZKalshi mid92
Oct 6 02:01ZKalshi mid92
Oct 6 02:02ZKalshi mid92
Oct 6 02:08ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 02:10ZKalshi mid90
Oct 6 02:20ZKalshi mid90
Oct 6 03:01ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 03:02ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 03:14ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 03:32ZKalshi mid92
Oct 6 03:46ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 04:01ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 05:01ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 06:01ZKalshi mid91
Oct 6 06:16ZKalshi mid90
Oct 6 06:34ZKalshi mid88
Oct 6 06:48ZKalshi mid88
Oct 6 06:54ZKalshi mid89
Oct 6 07:01ZKalshi mid89
Oct 6 07:14ZKalshi mid88
Oct 6 07:32ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 07:44ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 07:50ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 07:56ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 08:01ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 08:06ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 08:26ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 08:46ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 09:01ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 09:02ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 09:04ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 09:08ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 09:12ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 09:24ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 09:31ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 10:14ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 10:32ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 10:40ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 11:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 11:34ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 11:46ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 11:56ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 12:00ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 12:02ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 12:52ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 12:54ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 12:56ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 12:58ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 13:00ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 13:14ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 13:36ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 13:40ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 13:42ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 13:46ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 13:48ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 14:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 14:20ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 14:40ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 14:46ZKalshi mid84
Oct 6 14:48ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 14:50ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 14:52ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 15:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 15:20ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 15:34ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 15:36ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 15:54ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 15:56ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 16:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 16:04ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 16:38ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 16:58ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 17:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 17:10ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 17:32ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 18:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 19:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.069

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 85% to 81%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoffOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Guidance runs——
PBE85%69%
Market at capture85%81%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.32% or above
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b65a9a0e-2337-4284-a7e6-889adec031e4
Compared with
f86f75a0-2e76-40b4-a080-15949c1d0a48
Captured
Oct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoff
Oct 6 19:54Z
Market observation
81% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.31% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.