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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.23% or below” up to 75% from 63%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:50 UTC and 19:54 UTC on Oct 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 6 19:54ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

63%75%

5.23% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:50 UTC → 19:54 UTC

Move+12 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.23% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE71%−4 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 7 19:54Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.23% or below” from 63% to 75% (+12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 19:50Z → Oct 6 19:54Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 19:50Z (data cutoff Oct 5 19:50Z) and the one at Oct 6 19:54Z (cutoff Oct 6 19:54Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.23% or below” from 63% to 75%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.0 bp to 4.9 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.31% to 5.27%; Business days left from 18 to 17.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.0 bp4.9 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-052026-10-06—
Latest official par yield5.31%5.27%yes
Business days left1817yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.23% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 5 07:42ZOct 6 19:54Z63%75%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 73% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 75% · Oct 6 19:54Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.073
Oct 3 19:30ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 19:45ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 20:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 20:45ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 21:00ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 21:30ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 22:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 23:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 00:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 01:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 01:30ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 02:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 03:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 04:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 09:15ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 00:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 02:06ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 02:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 03:10ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 05:06ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 05:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 07:06ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 09:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 09:40ZKalshi mid88
Oct 5 10:08ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 11:08ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 13:08ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 15:44ZKalshi mid96
Oct 5 19:44ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 6 03:26ZKalshi mid71
Oct 6 03:40ZKalshi mid70
Oct 6 03:44ZKalshi mid71
Oct 6 03:46ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 03:58ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 04:01ZKalshi mid71
Oct 6 04:06ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 04:36ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 05:01ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 05:20ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 05:24ZKalshi mid71
Oct 6 06:02ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 06:12ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 07:04ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 09:36ZKalshi mid81
Oct 6 11:44ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 13:24ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 13:56ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 14:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 15:42ZKalshi mid83
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.075

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoffOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Guidance runs——
PBE63%75%
Market at capture32%—

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.23% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
713ea21f-5398-4506-89f2-6aa4273713e7
Compared with
d197786a-3b59-4940-809f-49e3adbe4eae
Captured
Oct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoff
Oct 6 19:54Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.24% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.