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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.17% or below” down to 60% from 71%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:14 UTC and 20:09 UTC on Oct 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 9 20:09ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

71%60%

5.17% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:14 UTC → 20:09 UTC

Move−11 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.17% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE60%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 20:09Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.17% or below” from 71% to 60% (−11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 8 20:14Z → Oct 9 20:09Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 8 20:14Z (data cutoff Oct 8 20:14Z) and the one at Oct 9 20:09Z (cutoff Oct 9 20:09Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.17% or below” from 71% to 60%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.9 bp to 4.8 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.22% to 5.24%; Business days left from 15 to 14.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.9 bp4.8 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-082026-10-09—
Latest official par yield5.22%5.24%yes
Business days left1514yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 9 20:09ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.17% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 6 19:49ZOct 9 20:09Z71%60%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 55% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 45% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 55% · Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 51% · Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 71% · Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 9 20:09Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 9 20:09ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.055
Oct 5 15:44ZKalshi mid96
Oct 5 19:16ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 19:44ZKalshi mid30
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.045
Oct 6 19:52ZKalshi mid49
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.055
Oct 6 20:00ZKalshi mid49
Oct 6 20:02ZKalshi mid48
Oct 6 20:10ZKalshi mid49
Oct 6 22:31ZKalshi mid49
Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.051
Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.071
Oct 9 01:18ZKalshi mid66
Oct 9 02:00ZKalshi mid66
Oct 9 16:49ZKalshi mid57
Oct 9 16:53ZKalshi mid57
Oct 9 17:01ZKalshi mid57
Oct 9 18:01ZKalshi mid55
Oct 9 18:47ZKalshi mid57
Oct 9 18:51ZKalshi mid59
Oct 9 18:55ZKalshi mid58
Oct 9 18:57ZKalshi mid57
Oct 9 18:59ZKalshi mid56
Oct 9 19:01ZKalshi mid58
Oct 9 19:15ZKalshi mid57
Oct 9 19:23ZKalshi mid56
Oct 9 20:09ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.060

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 8 20:14ZOct 9 20:09Z
Data cutoffOct 8 20:14ZOct 9 20:09Z
Guidance runs——
PBE71%60%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.17% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
1f7e2a61-aed4-4b9f-b91e-c605abc044d2
Compared with
457318fd-d855-46d5-8dd7-0e1cfe1625c2
Captured
Oct 9 20:09Z
Data cutoff
Oct 9 20:09Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 10-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS10 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 10-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.18% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.