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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “5.59% or below” up to 83% from 52%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:54 UTC and 20:14 UTC on Oct 8. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 8 20:14ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

52%83%

5.59% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:54 UTC → 20:14 UTC

Move+31 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

5.59% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE82%−1 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 20:09Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.59% or below” from 52% to 83% (+31 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 7 19:54Z → Oct 8 20:14Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Period high/low so far, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 7 19:54Z (data cutoff Oct 7 19:54Z) and the one at Oct 8 20:14Z (cutoff Oct 8 20:14Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.59% or below” from 52% to 83%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 4.2 bp to 4.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.67% to 5.6%; Period high/low so far from 5.61% to 5.6%; Business days left from 16 to 15.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)4.2 bp4.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-072026-10-08—
Latest official par yield5.67%5.6%yes
Period high/low so far5.61%5.6%yes
Business days left1615yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 8 20:14ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.59% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 6 07:52ZOct 8 20:14Z52%83%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 73% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 59% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 67% · Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 52% · Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 83% · Oct 8 20:14Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 8 20:14ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.073
Oct 3 19:30ZKalshi mid88
Oct 3 20:00ZKalshi mid86
Oct 3 20:15ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 20:45ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 21:00ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 21:30ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 21:45ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 22:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 23:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 3 23:30ZKalshi mid89
Oct 3 23:45ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 00:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 4 00:30ZKalshi mid93
Oct 4 02:00ZKalshi mid93
Oct 4 02:15ZKalshi mid93
Oct 4 03:15ZKalshi mid94
Oct 4 04:00ZKalshi mid95
Oct 4 04:15ZKalshi mid96
Oct 4 20:45ZKalshi mid94
Oct 4 21:01ZKalshi mid94
Oct 4 22:01ZKalshi mid81
Oct 4 22:15ZKalshi mid82
Oct 4 22:30ZKalshi mid82
Oct 4 22:45ZKalshi mid83
Oct 4 23:01ZKalshi mid83
Oct 4 23:32ZKalshi mid82
Oct 4 23:34ZKalshi mid81
Oct 4 23:38ZKalshi mid84
Oct 4 23:56ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 00:00ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 01:02ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 01:06ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 01:16ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 01:18ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 02:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 02:04ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 02:06ZKalshi mid86
Oct 5 02:10ZKalshi mid85
Oct 5 02:12ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 02:24ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 03:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 03:32ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 03:52ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 04:00ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 04:40ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 05:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 05:12ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 06:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 06:34ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 07:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 07:10ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 08:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 08:02ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 08:34ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 09:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 5 09:02ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 09:18ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 10:01ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 10:04ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 10:56ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 11:01ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 11:24ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 11:28ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 11:36ZKalshi mid83
Oct 5 12:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 5 12:02ZKalshi mid82
Oct 5 12:40ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 12:42ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 12:48ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 12:50ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 12:54ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 13:00ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 13:04ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 13:20ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 14:00ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 14:50ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 15:01ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 15:26ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 15:42ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 15:56ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 16:00ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 16:06ZKalshi mid75
Oct 5 16:08ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 16:10ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 17:02ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 17:12ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 18:00ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 18:20ZKalshi mid71
Oct 5 18:54ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 18:58ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 19:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 5 19:08ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 19:32ZKalshi mid87
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.059
Oct 5 20:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 5 20:28ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 20:52ZKalshi mid74
Oct 5 21:02ZKalshi mid75
Oct 5 22:01ZKalshi mid73
Oct 5 22:04ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 22:31ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 23:01ZKalshi mid72
Oct 5 23:34ZKalshi mid73
Oct 5 23:36ZKalshi mid74
Oct 5 23:38ZKalshi mid75
Oct 5 23:58ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 00:01ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 00:02ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 00:08ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 00:31ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 01:01ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 01:28ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 01:40ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 01:44ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 02:01ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 02:06ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 02:10ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 03:01ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 03:22ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 03:24ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 03:26ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 03:42ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 04:01ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 04:02ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 04:31ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 05:01ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 05:14ZKalshi mid71
Oct 6 05:24ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 06:01ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 06:46ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 06:48ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 06:52ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 06:54ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 07:01ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 07:06ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 07:14ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 07:22ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 08:01ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 08:24ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 08:44ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 08:48ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 09:01ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 09:02ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 09:04ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 09:06ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 09:11ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 09:41ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 10:01ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 10:02ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 10:08ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 11:00ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 11:22ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 11:24ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 11:26ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 11:34ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 11:46ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 12:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 12:08ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 12:16ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 12:18ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 12:40ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 12:44ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 13:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 13:04ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 13:14ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 13:16ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 13:24ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 13:26ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 13:36ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 14:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 14:44ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 14:50ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 14:52ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 14:56ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 14:58ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 15:00ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 15:08ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 15:54ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 16:00ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 16:06ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 16:16ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 16:24ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 16:54ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 17:00ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 17:14ZKalshi mid77
Oct 6 17:52ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 18:00ZKalshi mid79
Oct 6 18:08ZKalshi mid80
Oct 6 18:20ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 19:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 6 19:02ZKalshi mid78
Oct 6 19:04ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 19:10ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.067
Oct 6 19:54ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 19:56ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 20:00ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 20:36ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 20:38ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 21:02ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 22:31ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 23:02ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 23:04ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 23:08ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 23:16ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 23:18ZKalshi mid74
Oct 6 23:21ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 23:31ZKalshi mid73
Oct 6 23:41ZKalshi mid72
Oct 6 23:42ZKalshi mid72
Oct 7 00:02ZKalshi mid72
Oct 7 00:21ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 00:41ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 01:01ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 02:01ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 04:08ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 05:31ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 05:51ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 06:09ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 11:21ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 12:02ZKalshi mid71
Oct 7 12:25ZKalshi mid66
Oct 7 12:45ZKalshi mid63
Oct 7 13:00ZKalshi mid63
Oct 7 13:18ZKalshi mid56
Oct 7 13:48ZKalshi mid57
Oct 7 13:54ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 14:00ZKalshi mid57
Oct 7 14:02ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 14:04ZKalshi mid60
Oct 7 14:22ZKalshi mid60
Oct 7 14:32ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 14:40ZKalshi mid58
Oct 7 14:44ZKalshi mid57
Oct 7 15:00ZKalshi mid58
Oct 7 16:00ZKalshi mid58
Oct 7 17:00ZKalshi mid58
Oct 7 17:22ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 17:24ZKalshi mid60
Oct 7 17:28ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 18:00ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 18:04ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 18:22ZKalshi mid58
Oct 7 18:44ZKalshi mid62
Oct 7 19:00ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 19:26ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.052
Oct 7 20:00ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 20:44ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 20:46ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 20:48ZKalshi mid62
Oct 7 21:00ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 21:02ZKalshi mid62
Oct 7 21:12ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 21:44ZKalshi mid58
Oct 7 22:00ZKalshi mid59
Oct 7 22:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 23:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 7 23:09ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 00:02ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 00:03ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 01:02ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 01:27ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 01:57ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 02:02ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 02:31ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 03:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 04:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 05:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 06:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 06:57ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 07:01ZKalshi mid57
Oct 8 07:29ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 08:01ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 09:01ZKalshi mid61
Oct 8 09:17ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 09:19ZKalshi mid60
Oct 8 09:23ZKalshi mid60
Oct 8 09:45ZKalshi mid58
Oct 8 09:47ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 10:01ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 10:21ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 10:51ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 11:01ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 11:13ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 12:32ZKalshi mid49
Oct 8 12:34ZKalshi mid50
Oct 8 12:36ZKalshi mid53
Oct 8 12:38ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 12:44ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 12:46ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 12:48ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 12:50ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 12:52ZKalshi mid54
Oct 8 12:54ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 13:00ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 13:02ZKalshi mid55
Oct 8 13:08ZKalshi mid56
Oct 8 13:14ZKalshi mid59
Oct 8 13:16ZKalshi mid58
Oct 8 13:20ZKalshi mid60
Oct 8 16:18ZKalshi mid57
Oct 8 17:08ZKalshi mid57
Oct 8 17:22ZKalshi mid65
Oct 8 18:32ZKalshi mid89
Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.083

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 7 19:54ZOct 8 20:14Z
Data cutoffOct 7 19:54ZOct 8 20:14Z
Guidance runs——
PBE52%83%
Market at capture61%—

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.59% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
4d8dc8b0-0b8b-4e03-a30b-22160b16f197
Compared with
1b7469cb-5bc4-4fa3-9187-be3dc3794762
Captured
Oct 8 20:14Z
Data cutoff
Oct 8 20:14Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 30-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS30 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 30-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.60% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.