PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engine PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026: PBE moves “4.97% or below” down to 69% from 82%

New Treasury data reached the model between 20:14 UTC and 20:09 UTC on Oct 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 9 20:09ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

82%69%

4.97% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 20:14 UTC → 20:09 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

4.97% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE69%0 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 20:09Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “4.97% or below” from 82% to 69% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 8 20:14Z → Oct 9 20:09Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 8 20:14Z (data cutoff Oct 8 20:14Z) and the one at Oct 9 20:09Z (cutoff Oct 9 20:09Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “4.97% or below” from 82% to 69%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.2 bp; Latest official par yield from 4.99% to 5.02%; Business days left from 15 to 14.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.2 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-082026-10-09—
Latest official par yield4.99%5.02%yes
Business days left1514yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 9 20:09ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“4.97% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 6 19:49ZOct 9 20:09Z82%69%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 63% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 62% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 71% · Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 68% · Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 82% · Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 69% · Oct 9 20:09Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 9 20:09ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.063
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.062
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.071
Oct 7 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.068
Oct 8 20:14ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.082
Oct 8 23:06ZKalshi mid84
Oct 8 23:32ZKalshi mid85
Oct 9 00:12ZKalshi mid82
Oct 9 01:06ZKalshi mid85
Oct 9 01:14ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 01:16ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 01:30ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 02:00ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 02:04ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 02:08ZKalshi mid86
Oct 9 03:08ZKalshi mid84
Oct 9 03:50ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 04:00ZKalshi mid87
Oct 9 04:06ZKalshi mid86
Oct 9 04:36ZKalshi mid88
Oct 9 05:00ZKalshi mid88
Oct 9 06:04ZKalshi mid85
Oct 9 20:09ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.069

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 8 20:14ZOct 9 20:09Z
Data cutoffOct 8 20:14ZOct 9 20:09Z
Guidance runs——
PBE82%69%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

4.97% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
8ec3fbf1-3c55-449f-a875-6fc595fa538a
Compared with
055ee3d1-0194-48c7-8867-2a5f3d872102
Captured
Oct 9 20:09Z
Data cutoff
Oct 9 20:09Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 5-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS5 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 5-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.98% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.