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RATES · FORECAST CHANGE

How low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026: PBE moves “5.1% or below” up to 70% from 59%

New Treasury data reached the model between 19:50 UTC and 19:54 UTC on Oct 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 6 19:54ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

59%70%

5.1% or below · pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · 19:50 UTC → 19:54 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture—
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

How low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

5.1% or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE74%+4 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 20:09Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 8 20:14Z PBE 83% pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 20:14Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 moved “5.1% or below” from 59% to 70% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 19:50Z → Oct 6 19:54Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: Daily volatility (EWMA), Latest official par yield, Business days left.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 19:50Z (data cutoff Oct 5 19:50Z) and the one at Oct 6 19:54Z (cutoff Oct 6 19:54Z), the same model version — pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 — moved “5.1% or below” from 59% to 70%. The model inputs that changed: Daily volatility (EWMA) from 5.3 bp to 5.3 bp; Latest official par yield from 5.19% to 5.15%; Business days left from 18 to 17.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Daily volatility (EWMA)5.3 bp5.3 bpyes
last_published_date2026-10-052026-10-06—
Latest official par yield5.19%5.15%yes
Business days left1817yes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying yields changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“5.1% or below”: pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 3 19:30ZOct 5 07:42ZOct 6 19:54Z59%70%PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 66% · Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 59% · Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots 70% · Oct 6 19:54Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 19:54ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 3 19:30ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.066
Oct 4 22:15ZKalshi mid80
Oct 4 23:01ZKalshi mid80
Oct 4 23:32ZKalshi mid80
Oct 5 08:48ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 09:22ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 10:01ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 10:18ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 10:25ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 11:01ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 11:06ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 11:44ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 12:40ZKalshi mid79
Oct 5 12:44ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 13:00ZKalshi mid78
Oct 5 13:06ZKalshi mid76
Oct 5 13:16ZKalshi mid77
Oct 5 19:50ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.059
Oct 6 01:16ZKalshi mid76
Oct 6 01:18ZKalshi mid75
Oct 6 19:54ZPBE pbe-rates-path@1.0.070

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoffOct 5 19:50ZOct 6 19:54Z
Guidance runs——
PBE59%70%
Market at capture——

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

5.1% or below
Model
pbe-rates-path@1.0.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0d3b9bb1-1c68-4f35-8235-47fb700a671e
Compared with
c8624606-561a-4fce-9737-88ef0122be62
Captured
Oct 6 19:54Z
Data cutoff
Oct 6 19:54Z
Source families
U.S. Department of the Treasury · PBE calibration rates-path-v1 (standardized daily changes 1962-2017)
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
U.S. Department of the Treasury (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates) — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate, 7-year tenor, first published value per business day
Independent check
FRED DGS7 (H.15 constant maturity, same Treasury curve)
Measurement
Daily par yield for the 7-year tenor on each business day 2026-10-01..2026-10-30; intraday values not considered
Rounding
Yields as published (two decimals)
Exceptions
The market may expire early once the threshold is met · First published value per business day governs unless the Exchange finds a material error
If the daily published par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.11% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Random-walk drift assumption; no macro-release calendar effects yet
  • Contracts already decided by the published path are not forecast

Rates · Treasury yield paths — inputs: Official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve (settlement source); EWMA volatility x bootstrapped historical daily changes. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.