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Atlanta — photograph (Photo: AtlChampion · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 1, 2026: PBE moves “Atlanta” up to 73% from 49%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 31. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 31 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: AtlChampion · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

49%73%

Atlanta · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+24 pts
Market at capture85%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 1, 2026?

Atlanta · PRE-WINDOW

PBE73%0 pts since publication
Kalshi86%+13 pts since publication
Gap−13

RESEARCH PBE Oct 31 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Atlanta” from 49% to 73% (+24 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 31 11:00Z → Oct 31 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 73% to 85%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 31 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 31 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 31 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 31 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Atlanta” from 49% to 73%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 32% to 51%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 24% to 36%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 64% to 83%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 58% to 78%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain32%51%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain24%36%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window64%83%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window58%78%yes
Guidance lead time23h17h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Atlanta”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31 09:12ZOct 31 13:06ZOct 31 17:00Z49%73%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 46% · Oct 31 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 49% · Oct 31 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 73% · Oct 31 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 31 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.046
Oct 31 09:12ZKalshi mid77
Oct 31 09:14ZKalshi mid80
Oct 31 09:18ZKalshi mid79
Oct 31 09:40ZKalshi mid75
Oct 31 09:42ZKalshi mid76
Oct 31 09:44ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 10:00ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 10:12ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 10:14ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 10:18ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 10:20ZKalshi mid71
Oct 31 10:22ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 10:24ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 10:38ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 10:54ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.049
Oct 31 11:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 11:02ZKalshi mid74
Oct 31 11:04ZKalshi mid74
Oct 31 11:10ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 11:16ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 11:22ZKalshi mid77
Oct 31 11:24ZKalshi mid76
Oct 31 11:26ZKalshi mid77
Oct 31 11:30ZKalshi mid76
Oct 31 11:34ZKalshi mid76
Oct 31 11:36ZKalshi mid75
Oct 31 11:40ZKalshi mid75
Oct 31 11:44ZKalshi mid74
Oct 31 11:50ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 11:52ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 12:00ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 12:14ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 12:16ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 12:20ZKalshi mid71
Oct 31 12:32ZKalshi mid71
Oct 31 12:50ZKalshi mid71
Oct 31 12:52ZKalshi mid70
Oct 31 13:00ZKalshi mid70
Oct 31 13:06ZKalshi mid71
Oct 31 13:28ZKalshi mid72
Oct 31 13:30ZKalshi mid73
Oct 31 13:44ZKalshi mid79
Oct 31 13:46ZKalshi mid80
Oct 31 14:00ZKalshi mid83
Oct 31 14:02ZKalshi mid83
Oct 31 14:32ZKalshi mid84
Oct 31 15:00ZKalshi mid81
Oct 31 15:02ZKalshi mid82
Oct 31 15:16ZKalshi mid82
Oct 31 15:20ZKalshi mid82
Oct 31 15:22ZKalshi mid82
Oct 31 15:34ZKalshi mid81
Oct 31 15:36ZKalshi mid80
Oct 31 15:38ZKalshi mid79
Oct 31 15:40ZKalshi mid79
Oct 31 15:52ZKalshi mid79
Oct 31 15:54ZKalshi mid80
Oct 31 16:00ZKalshi mid80
Oct 31 16:04ZKalshi mid81
Oct 31 16:18ZKalshi mid82
Oct 31 16:22ZKalshi mid83
Oct 31 16:24ZKalshi mid83
Oct 31 16:28ZKalshi mid82
Oct 31 16:58ZKalshi mid87
Oct 31 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.073
Oct 31 17:00ZKalshi mid85

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 73% to 85%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 31 11:00ZOct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 31 11:00ZOct 31 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T12Z
PBE49%73%
Market at capture73%85%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Atlanta
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b4efe3ae-eedf-47bf-8197-9ba0366d1404
Compared with
6e677e95-477b-4752-8815-d9e196a5666a
Captured
Oct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 31 17:00Z
Market observation
85% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIATL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIATL (WFO FFC); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013874
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-01, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-02T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIATL in Atlanta in Nov 1, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.