Where will it rain on Nov 1, 2026: Denver — it happened. How PBE scored.
Denver: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 19% against a 27% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
Resolved Nov 2 14:12Z · verified against NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202611020732-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN
Where will it rain on Nov 1, 2026?
Denver · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: Denver: YES; official check 0.04 in agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 19%; market at that moment 27%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.063, market 0.059 (n=30).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
Where will it rain on Nov 1, 2026 resolved with Denver: YES. The venue settled at Nov 2 14:12Z (expiration value 0.04); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202611020732-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN — recorded 0.04 in, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | YES | 98% | — | 98% (mkt 97%) |
| Atlanta | YES | 46% (mkt 77%) | — | 73% (mkt 89%) |
| Austin | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 3%) |
| Boston | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Chicago | YES | 46% | — | 26% (mkt 34%) |
| College Station | NO | 2% (mkt 5%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Columbus | NO | 18% (mkt 8%) | — | 11% (mkt 17%) |
| Dallas | NO | 4% | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Washington DC | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Denver | YES | 3% (mkt 11%) | — | 19% (mkt 27%) |
| Newark | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Houston | NO | 5% (mkt 8%) | — | 2% (mkt 7%) |
| Los Angeles | YES | 87% (mkt 93%) | — | 98% (mkt 91%) |
| Lexington | YES | 89% (mkt 66%) | — | 70% (mkt 74%) |
| Las Vegas | YES | 93% | — | 98% (mkt 96%) |
| Miami | YES | 97% (mkt 95%) | — | 98% (mkt 96%) |
| Minneapolis | NO | 25% (mkt 17%) | — | 6% (mkt 13%) |
| Milwaukee | NO | 40% (mkt 14%) | — | 19% (mkt 22%) |
| New Orleans | YES | 65% (mkt 69%) | — | 55% (mkt 71%) |
| New York City | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Oklahoma City | NO | 7% (mkt 7%) | — | 4% (mkt 8%) |
| Philadelphia | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Phoenix | YES | 98% (mkt 95%) | — | 98% (mkt 99%) |
| Pittsburgh | NO | 12% | — | 5% (mkt 6%) |
| Providence | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| San Antonio | NO | 2% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 3%) |
| Seattle | NO | 3% | — | 2% (mkt 4%) |
| San Francisco | YES | 66% (mkt 67%) | — | 83% (mkt 84%) |
| Springfield | YES | 52% | — | 52% (mkt 75%) |
| Trenton | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 30 contracts was 0.063 against 0.059 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.077 | 0.084 | 30 | 15 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.283 | 0.303 | 30 | 15 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.063 | 0.059 | 30 | 23 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.199 | 0.208 | 30 | 23 |
This event adds 30 resolved contracts to the model's live record (867 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | e3d8ec4a-f7b0-4256-8c03-b870c0326dba | 8409f336-f01c-4b84-b565-506f0a29ade5 | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 97% |
| Atlanta | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | ffe8624c-3432-4e04-a946-b47f27056e42 | 79017b28-c6d3-42c1-8c48-28c9e8fb7583 | Oct 31 23:00Z | Oct 31 23:00Z | 89% |
| Austin | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 95a53a9b-278c-4294-8eeb-971a5baf216e | 985f7056-e32a-4da0-83cc-2aa2cc1398e7 | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 3% |
| Boston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | b300fce6-4f74-4c96-a0b0-8aabaf877bd5 | 00768dcd-fbcd-4ae2-9007-b83443cae0db | Oct 31 23:00Z | Oct 31 23:00Z | — |
| Chicago | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | aa4ea83b-2fa3-4e5c-9f6b-a01be71609b1 | 152c796d-c869-4635-9c9d-96aa151b2ba5 | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 34% |
| College Station | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | e73aa5c5-82d9-4427-ba55-2204ae95c6b8 | 9d6ecb50-e8a1-4516-8afd-8ea83017f2d2 | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 2% |
| Columbus | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 3dc9e121-2929-45bf-8aa1-ef7ea94c75d8 | 3ba029a0-f3cb-41b0-85e1-c876cda5453f | Oct 31 23:00Z | Oct 31 23:00Z | 17% |
| Dallas | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 30326be8-72f8-49e0-9a2e-0fcf2f3583c0 | 6d1d4164-231f-432d-bf7a-eff1311c7422 | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 2% |
| Washington DC | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | a4c87c24-83d1-4563-b057-2f888b554e46 | 9b4051c0-ef76-4239-a655-ac46c89f953d | Oct 31 23:00Z | Oct 31 23:00Z | — |
| Denver | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 37b50c73-560c-46a8-93b5-3b4f76bcb3d4 | 1a61c092-4187-426d-bd8c-5090a12f567c | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 27% |
| Newark | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | c171a410-2c97-43ba-954d-35f55d1893cf | eac9b2dd-eb09-40b4-87dc-7c17b9d39b83 | Oct 31 23:00Z | Oct 31 23:00Z | — |
| Houston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 7a88cc7d-89e1-40f6-a26a-56615f220011 | e6aabd97-334b-41e8-9c95-b6d0a0953297 | Nov 1 05:00Z | Nov 1 05:00Z | 7% |
Source families: NWS CLI CLIABQ product 202611021018-KABQ-CDUS45-CLIABQ · NWS CLI CLIATL product 202611020935-KFFC-CDUS42-CLIATL · NWS CLI CLIAUS product 202611020733-KEWX-CDUS44-CLIAUS · NWS CLI CLIBOS product 202611020527-KBOX-CDUS41-CLIBOS · NWS CLI CLIORD product 202611020644-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIORD · NWS CLI CLICLL product 202611020643-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL · NWS CLI CLICMH product 202611020537-KILN-CDUS41-CLICMH · NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202611020744-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW · NWS CLI CLIDCA product 202611020728-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIDCA · NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202611020732-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN · NWS CLI CLIEWR product 202611020621-KOKX-CDUS41-CLIEWR · NWS CLI CLIHOU product 202611020643-KHGX-CDUS44-CLIHOU. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
- Measurement
- Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-01, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
- Rounding
- Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
- Exceptions
- Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-02T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
- Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
- IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
- Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112
Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.