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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 10, 2026: PBE moves “Houston” up to 44% from 27%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 9 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

27%44%

Houston · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture62%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 10, 2026?

Houston · PRE-WINDOW

PBE44%0 pts since publication
Kalshi76%+14 pts since publication
Gap−32

RESEARCH PBE Nov 9 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Houston” from 27% to 44% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 11:00Z → Nov 9 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 9 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 9 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 9 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Houston” from 27% to 44%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 29% to 41%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 9% to 14%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 58% to 72%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 23% to 38%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain29%41%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain9%14%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window58%72%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window23%38%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 9 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Houston”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 9 10:12ZNov 9 13:36ZNov 9 17:00Z27%44%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Nov 9 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 9 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 44% · Nov 9 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 9 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 9 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.029
Nov 9 10:20ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 10:26ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 10:28ZKalshi mid32
Nov 9 10:30ZKalshi mid33
Nov 9 10:32ZKalshi mid40
Nov 9 10:34ZKalshi mid41
Nov 9 10:36ZKalshi mid40
Nov 9 10:50ZKalshi mid40
Nov 9 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.027
Nov 9 11:04ZKalshi mid40
Nov 9 11:06ZKalshi mid40
Nov 9 11:08ZKalshi mid39
Nov 9 11:10ZKalshi mid40
Nov 9 11:28ZKalshi mid42
Nov 9 11:30ZKalshi mid43
Nov 9 11:36ZKalshi mid44
Nov 9 11:44ZKalshi mid42
Nov 9 11:48ZKalshi mid42
Nov 9 11:50ZKalshi mid42
Nov 9 11:56ZKalshi mid43
Nov 9 12:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 9 12:02ZKalshi mid48
Nov 9 12:06ZKalshi mid51
Nov 9 12:18ZKalshi mid50
Nov 9 12:20ZKalshi mid50
Nov 9 12:34ZKalshi mid52
Nov 9 12:38ZKalshi mid51
Nov 9 12:48ZKalshi mid51
Nov 9 12:50ZKalshi mid51
Nov 9 12:56ZKalshi mid51
Nov 9 12:58ZKalshi mid50
Nov 9 13:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 9 13:34ZKalshi mid57
Nov 9 13:36ZKalshi mid57
Nov 9 13:40ZKalshi mid62
Nov 9 13:44ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 13:50ZKalshi mid63
Nov 9 13:52ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 13:54ZKalshi mid60
Nov 9 13:56ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 13:58ZKalshi mid60
Nov 9 14:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 9 14:02ZKalshi mid57
Nov 9 14:04ZKalshi mid56
Nov 9 14:08ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 14:10ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 14:12ZKalshi mid62
Nov 9 14:14ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 14:20ZKalshi mid59
Nov 9 14:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 9 14:34ZKalshi mid59
Nov 9 14:58ZKalshi mid57
Nov 9 15:00ZKalshi mid57
Nov 9 15:08ZKalshi mid56
Nov 9 15:10ZKalshi mid56
Nov 9 15:14ZKalshi mid55
Nov 9 15:22ZKalshi mid56
Nov 9 15:24ZKalshi mid56
Nov 9 15:46ZKalshi mid60
Nov 9 15:54ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 16:08ZKalshi mid60
Nov 9 16:10ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 16:22ZKalshi mid61
Nov 9 16:40ZKalshi mid63
Nov 9 16:50ZKalshi mid62
Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.044
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid62

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 11:00ZNov 9 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 9 11:00ZNov 9 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T12Z
PBE27%44%
Market at capture—62%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Houston
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
d43a5ad2-747f-4be2-85a8-e1fd7a69a1b2
Compared with
7e296c3f-e980-4445-a4c4-6592e885f128
Captured
Nov 9 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 9 17:00Z
Market observation
62% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIHOU (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIHOU (WFO HGX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012918
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-11T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Nov 10, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.