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New Orleans — photograph (Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026: PBE moves “New Orleans” up to 50% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 10. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 10 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%50%

New Orleans · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture70%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026?

New Orleans · PRE-WINDOW

PBE50%0 pts since publication
Kalshi70%−2 pts since publication
Gap−20

RESEARCH PBE Nov 10 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “New Orleans” from 36% to 50% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 10 11:00Z → Nov 10 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 72% to 70%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 10 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 10 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 10 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 10 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “New Orleans” from 36% to 50%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 21% to 28%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 32% to 43%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 37% to 44%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 48% to 63%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain21%28%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain32%43%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window37%44%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window48%63%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 10 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“New Orleans”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10 10:12ZNov 10 13:36ZNov 10 17:00Z36%50%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 10 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 10 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 10 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 10 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 10 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.037
Nov 10 10:28ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 10:36ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 10:44ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 10:56ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.036
Nov 10 11:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 11:02ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 11:12ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 11:14ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 11:26ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 11:30ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 11:36ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 12:00ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 12:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 12:12ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 12:14ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 12:20ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 12:36ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 12:38ZKalshi mid79
Nov 10 12:46ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 12:50ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 12:52ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 13:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 13:02ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 13:04ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 13:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 13:12ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 13:34ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 13:36ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 13:40ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 13:42ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 13:56ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 14:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 14:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 10 14:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 14:14ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 14:20ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 14:22ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 14:28ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 14:32ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 15:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 15:02ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 15:04ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 15:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 15:16ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 15:18ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 15:22ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 15:52ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 16:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 16:02ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 16:06ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 16:08ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 16:10ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 16:16ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 16:18ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 16:22ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 16:26ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 16:28ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 16:38ZKalshi mid70
Nov 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.050
Nov 10 17:00ZKalshi mid70

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 72% to 70%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 10 11:00ZNov 10 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 10 11:00ZNov 10 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-10T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-10T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-10T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-10T12Z
PBE36%50%
Market at capture72%70%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

New Orleans
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
31cb7013-c713-472f-8ad1-cca2f88923ae
Compared with
e7f6b7d7-54c1-46a5-856a-6df25844ec70
Captured
Nov 10 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 10 17:00Z
Market observation
70% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMSY (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMSY (WFO LIX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012916
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-11, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-12T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMSY in New Orleans in Nov 11, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.