PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
Chicago — photograph (Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026: PBE moves “Chicago” up to 83% from 58%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 11 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons

58%83%

Chicago · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+25 pts
Market at capture79%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026?

Chicago · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday99%+16 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KORD: high so far 57.9°F · latest 48.0°F () · rain so far 0.16 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Nov 11 21:34Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 11 19:59Z PBE 73% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 19:39Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 11 20:59Z PBE 61% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 20:09Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 11 21:34Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 21:34Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Chicago” from 58% to 83% (+25 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 10 23:00Z → Nov 11 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 78% to 79%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 10 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 10 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 11 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 11 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Chicago” from 58% to 83%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 39% to 66%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 36% to 56%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 69% to 85%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 54% to 80%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain39%66%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain36%56%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window69%85%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window54%80%yes
Guidance lead time12h6h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 11 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Chicago”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10 10:12ZNov 10 19:36ZNov 11 05:00Z58%83%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 67% · Nov 10 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 45% · Nov 10 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 54% · Nov 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 58% · Nov 10 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 83% · Nov 11 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 11 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 10 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.067
Nov 10 10:20ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 10:26ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 10:40ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 10:50ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 10:52ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 10:54ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 10:56ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.045
Nov 10 11:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 11:20ZKalshi mid62
Nov 10 11:30ZKalshi mid62
Nov 10 11:48ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 11:50ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 11:52ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 12:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 12:10ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 12:12ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 12:46ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 12:48ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 12:54ZKalshi mid58
Nov 10 13:00ZKalshi mid58
Nov 10 13:02ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 13:06ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 13:08ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 13:10ZKalshi mid51
Nov 10 13:12ZKalshi mid50
Nov 10 13:16ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 13:34ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 13:38ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 13:48ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 13:50ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 13:52ZKalshi mid50
Nov 10 13:56ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 13:58ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 14:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 14:02ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 14:06ZKalshi mid53
Nov 10 14:12ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 14:14ZKalshi mid52
Nov 10 14:30ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 14:36ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 14:50ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 15:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 15:16ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 15:18ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 15:46ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 15:50ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 16:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 16:02ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 16:04ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 16:08ZKalshi mid54
Nov 10 16:16ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 16:18ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 16:20ZKalshi mid58
Nov 10 16:22ZKalshi mid60
Nov 10 16:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 16:28ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 16:30ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.054
Nov 10 17:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 17:02ZKalshi mid58
Nov 10 17:06ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 17:08ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 17:20ZKalshi mid56
Nov 10 17:26ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 17:28ZKalshi mid55
Nov 10 17:52ZKalshi mid57
Nov 10 17:54ZKalshi mid59
Nov 10 17:56ZKalshi mid63
Nov 10 17:58ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 18:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 18:02ZKalshi mid68
Nov 10 18:12ZKalshi mid67
Nov 10 18:16ZKalshi mid66
Nov 10 18:50ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 19:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 19:06ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 19:08ZKalshi mid62
Nov 10 19:10ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 19:26ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 19:30ZKalshi mid67
Nov 10 19:34ZKalshi mid67
Nov 10 20:00ZKalshi mid67
Nov 10 20:06ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 20:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 10 20:16ZKalshi mid63
Nov 10 20:34ZKalshi mid66
Nov 10 20:36ZKalshi mid68
Nov 10 20:38ZKalshi mid68
Nov 10 20:46ZKalshi mid69
Nov 10 20:48ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 20:50ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 20:52ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 21:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 21:02ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 21:04ZKalshi mid73
Nov 10 21:46ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 21:56ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 22:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 22:02ZKalshi mid72
Nov 10 22:34ZKalshi mid71
Nov 10 22:40ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 22:42ZKalshi mid76
Nov 10 22:44ZKalshi mid75
Nov 10 22:48ZKalshi mid74
Nov 10 22:54ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 22:56ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.058
Nov 10 23:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 23:04ZKalshi mid82
Nov 10 23:06ZKalshi mid82
Nov 10 23:08ZKalshi mid83
Nov 10 23:16ZKalshi mid83
Nov 10 23:22ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 23:26ZKalshi mid78
Nov 10 23:28ZKalshi mid77
Nov 10 23:40ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 00:00ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 00:04ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 00:06ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 00:10ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 00:12ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 00:34ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 01:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 11 01:02ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 01:04ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 01:12ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 01:18ZKalshi mid78
Nov 11 01:28ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 01:42ZKalshi mid75
Nov 11 02:00ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 02:12ZKalshi mid76
Nov 11 02:14ZKalshi mid77
Nov 11 02:24ZKalshi mid79
Nov 11 02:32ZKalshi mid79
Nov 11 02:34ZKalshi mid80
Nov 11 02:44ZKalshi mid80
Nov 11 02:46ZKalshi mid81
Nov 11 02:48ZKalshi mid81
Nov 11 02:50ZKalshi mid81
Nov 11 02:52ZKalshi mid81
Nov 11 02:54ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 03:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 03:32ZKalshi mid81
Nov 11 03:40ZKalshi mid81
Nov 11 03:42ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 03:48ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 04:00ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 04:10ZKalshi mid82
Nov 11 04:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 11 04:26ZKalshi mid80
Nov 11 04:56ZKalshi mid79
Nov 11 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.083
Nov 11 05:00ZKalshi mid79

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 78% to 79%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 10 23:00ZNov 11 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 10 23:00ZNov 11 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-10T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-10T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T00Z
PBE58%83%
Market at capture78%79%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Chicago
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
d56998ca-2704-4725-b167-a5eafdeca91a
Compared with
a49b8b5c-b607-4b9c-ac70-1ec58ff751b7
Captured
Nov 11 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 11 05:00Z
Market observation
79% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIORD (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIORD (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094846
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-11, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-12T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIORD in Chicago in Nov 11, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.