Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026: College Station — it happened. How PBE scored.
College Station: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 16% against a 36% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
Resolved Nov 12 13:02Z · verified against NWS CLI CLICLL product 202611120704-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL
Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026?
College Station · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: College Station: YES; official check 0.03 in agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 16%; market at that moment 36%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.083, market 0.081 (n=29).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
Where will it rain on Nov 11, 2026 resolved with College Station: YES. The venue settled at Nov 12 13:02Z (expiration value 0.03); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLICLL product 202611120704-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL — recorded 0.03 in, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Atlanta | NO | 9% (mkt 6%) | — | 10% (mkt 6%) |
| Austin | NO | 2% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 4%) |
| Boston | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Chicago | YES | 67% | — | 83% (mkt 79%) |
| College Station | YES | 7% (mkt 5%) | — | 16% (mkt 36%) |
| Columbus | NO | 54% | — | 62% (mkt 66%) |
| Dallas | NO | 3% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Washington DC | NO | 2% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Denver | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Newark | NO | 2% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Houston | YES | 59% (mkt 91%) | — | 96% (mkt 96%) |
| Los Angeles | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Lexington | YES | 79% (mkt 83%) | — | 73% (mkt 81%) |
| Las Vegas | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Miami | NO | 34% | — | 50% (mkt 49%) |
| Minneapolis | NO | 16% | — | 7% (mkt 31%) |
| Milwaukee | NO | 58% | — | 77% (mkt 69%) |
| New Orleans | YES | 37% | — | 51% (mkt 72%) |
| New York City | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Oklahoma City | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% |
| Philadelphia | NO | 2% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Pittsburgh | NO | 10% | — | 30% (mkt 7%) |
| Providence | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| San Antonio | NO | 2% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 3%) |
| Seattle | NO | 26% | — | 17% (mkt 16%) |
| San Francisco | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Springfield | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 3%) |
| Trenton | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 29 contracts was 0.083 against 0.081 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.084 | 0.079 | 29 | 12 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.273 | 0.294 | 29 | 12 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.083 | 0.081 | 29 | 23 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.250 | 0.245 | 29 | 23 |
This event adds 29 resolved contracts to the model's live record (1160 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 6310f4b9-ffa8-4ba5-92cc-55aa75efec01 | a789ae78-fcae-451a-96da-228d5a929b68 | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | — |
| Atlanta | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 51ae6d3e-a08a-4ed3-bcad-1a323ac2bfbb | 2755283f-6a4e-4634-ae0c-6ead42e593a6 | Nov 10 23:00Z | Nov 10 23:00Z | 6% |
| Austin | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 49443c5a-0027-4d5e-9b6e-e28fb526a7a9 | cc2122d3-1d9e-4c1b-b161-a9865b94ab97 | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | 4% |
| Boston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | a782471e-5df5-4f79-afa4-9874bef8443c | 9572b5e9-bcec-41e7-a545-00cbeb542951 | Nov 10 23:00Z | Nov 10 23:00Z | 2% |
| Chicago | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | d56998ca-2704-4725-b167-a5eafdeca91a | fef6bc4b-40f4-41cb-abe0-2b8cee46f802 | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | 79% |
| College Station | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 52ef6114-3bef-4869-8810-f5b019f2f21a | 2e821b63-afe6-403f-9be2-7f1223f4f5f4 | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | 36% |
| Columbus | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 47eaf3fc-9caa-427a-aa77-1e2475df2c98 | b534d55a-3781-44e2-bbdd-71c1829801bb | Nov 10 23:00Z | Nov 10 23:00Z | 66% |
| Dallas | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | dc876013-ce0d-4daa-90bf-67a9bf2c1d7c | 95d6af37-7303-4ae2-9a2e-4c05a7ecee9c | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | 2% |
| Washington DC | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 79cde486-4b51-41f9-8d65-7a6b6303b355 | 72fa09c6-9676-4b40-9612-996949d58add | Nov 10 23:00Z | Nov 10 23:00Z | 2% |
| Denver | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 9a3d5ae3-6613-4fd6-adec-58a5c582a09b | 7c586fab-c315-490e-b6f3-72198deebd5b | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | — |
| Newark | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 0d9764c5-3f69-434a-93cc-21413a64e5b1 | c65cec5c-8cfa-4c2f-9264-4c2a93bc58f3 | Nov 10 23:00Z | Nov 10 23:00Z | 2% |
| Houston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 5f001996-684e-49ce-9627-d516b1d5e146 | ed9d48f8-8425-4462-b125-9db3eaa17a08 | Nov 11 05:00Z | Nov 11 05:00Z | 96% |
Source families: NWS CLI CLIABQ product 202611121021-KABQ-CDUS45-CLIABQ · NWS CLI CLIATL product 202611120923-KFFC-CDUS42-CLIATL · NWS CLI CLIAUS product 202611120806-KEWX-CDUS44-CLIAUS · NWS CLI CLIBOS product 202611120525-KBOX-CDUS41-CLIBOS · NWS CLI CLIORD product 202611120714-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIORD · NWS CLI CLICLL product 202611120704-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL · NWS CLI CLICMH product 202611120551-KILN-CDUS41-CLICMH · NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202611120639-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW · NWS CLI CLIDCA product 202611120725-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIDCA · NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202611120736-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN · NWS CLI CLIEWR product 202611120628-KOKX-CDUS41-CLIEWR · NWS CLI CLIHOU product 202611120704-KHGX-CDUS44-CLIHOU. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLICLL (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLICLL (WFO HGX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003904
- Measurement
- Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-11, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
- Rounding
- Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
- Exceptions
- Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-12T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
- Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
- IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
- Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112
Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.