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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026: PBE moves “Miami” up to 51% from 34%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 11 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

34%51%

Miami · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture56%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?

Miami · PRE-WINDOW

PBE45%−6 pts since publication
Kalshi63%+8 pts since publication
Gap−18

RESEARCH PBE Nov 11 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Miami” from 34% to 51% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 11 11:00Z → Nov 11 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 55% to 56%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 11 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 11 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 11 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 11 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Miami” from 34% to 51%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 24% to 33%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 21% to 36%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 46% to 61%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 40% to 48%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain24%33%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain21%36%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window46%61%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window40%48%yes
Guidance lead time23h17h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 11 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Miami”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 11 10:12ZNov 11 13:36ZNov 11 17:00Z34%51%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 11 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 34% · Nov 11 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 51% · Nov 11 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 11 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 11 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.039
Nov 11 10:38ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 10:50ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 10:52ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 10:54ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.034
Nov 11 11:00ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 11:10ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 11:14ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 11:16ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 11:18ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 11:26ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 11:28ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 11:30ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 12:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 12:16ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 12:20ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 12:24ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 12:26ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 12:28ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 12:30ZKalshi mid50
Nov 11 12:32ZKalshi mid48
Nov 11 12:34ZKalshi mid48
Nov 11 13:00ZKalshi mid48
Nov 11 13:32ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 13:34ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 13:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 13:38ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 13:42ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 13:52ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 13:54ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 13:56ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 14:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 11 14:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 11 14:12ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 14:14ZKalshi mid56
Nov 11 14:16ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 14:18ZKalshi mid56
Nov 11 14:24ZKalshi mid56
Nov 11 14:42ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 14:56ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 14:58ZKalshi mid59
Nov 11 15:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 11 15:08ZKalshi mid59
Nov 11 15:12ZKalshi mid62
Nov 11 15:14ZKalshi mid63
Nov 11 15:16ZKalshi mid63
Nov 11 15:42ZKalshi mid63
Nov 11 16:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 11 16:12ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 16:16ZKalshi mid57
Nov 11 16:20ZKalshi mid56
Nov 11 16:24ZKalshi mid56
Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.051
Nov 11 17:00ZKalshi mid56

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 55% to 56%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 11 11:00ZNov 11 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 11 11:00ZNov 11 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T12Z
PBE34%51%
Market at capture55%56%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Miami
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
46ee886d-5d8d-4cec-a279-853a6fd0eebd
Compared with
2e139bb4-2b4c-45ef-be89-df6b5828a54b
Captured
Nov 11 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 11 17:00Z
Market observation
56% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-13T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Nov 12, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.