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Washington, D.C. — photograph (Photo: Carol M. Highsmith · Public domain · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 13, 2026: PBE moves “Washington DC” down to 39% from 52%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 12 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Carol M. Highsmith · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons

52%39%

Washington DC · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture11%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 13, 2026?

Washington DC · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%−14 pts since publication
Kalshi3%−8 pts since publication
Gap+22

RESEARCH PBE Nov 12 23:00Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 12 23:00Z PBE 25% pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 12 23:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Washington DC” from 52% to 39% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 12 11:00Z → Nov 12 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 12 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 12 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 12 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 12 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Washington DC” from 52% to 39%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 38% to 29%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 31% to 19%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 57% to 61%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 57% to 37%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain38%29%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain31%19%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window57%61%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window57%37%yes
Guidance lead time23h17h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 12 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Washington DC”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 12 10:12ZNov 12 13:36ZNov 12 17:00Z52%39%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 45% · Nov 12 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 52% · Nov 12 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 39% · Nov 12 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 12 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 12 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.045
Nov 12 10:32ZKalshi mid27
Nov 12 10:36ZKalshi mid27
Nov 12 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.052
Nov 12 11:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 12 11:04ZKalshi mid26
Nov 12 11:06ZKalshi mid27
Nov 12 11:10ZKalshi mid24
Nov 12 11:14ZKalshi mid24
Nov 12 11:16ZKalshi mid23
Nov 12 11:18ZKalshi mid23
Nov 12 11:20ZKalshi mid21
Nov 12 12:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 12 12:16ZKalshi mid21
Nov 12 12:48ZKalshi mid20
Nov 12 13:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 12 13:12ZKalshi mid18
Nov 12 13:22ZKalshi mid19
Nov 12 13:26ZKalshi mid18
Nov 12 13:38ZKalshi mid18
Nov 12 13:42ZKalshi mid18
Nov 12 13:48ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 13:50ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 13:56ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 14:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 14:46ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 14:48ZKalshi mid11
Nov 12 14:50ZKalshi mid13
Nov 12 14:54ZKalshi mid12
Nov 12 15:00ZKalshi mid12
Nov 12 15:16ZKalshi mid12
Nov 12 15:18ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 15:34ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 15:38ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 15:40ZKalshi mid14
Nov 12 15:42ZKalshi mid15
Nov 12 15:44ZKalshi mid12
Nov 12 15:48ZKalshi mid13
Nov 12 16:00ZKalshi mid13
Nov 12 16:08ZKalshi mid13
Nov 12 16:10ZKalshi mid12
Nov 12 16:12ZKalshi mid10
Nov 12 16:16ZKalshi mid11
Nov 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.039
Nov 12 17:00ZKalshi mid11

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 12 11:00ZNov 12 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 12 11:00ZNov 12 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-12T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-12T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-12T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-12T12Z
PBE52%39%
Market at capture—11%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Washington DC
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
ba6cda59-0bb7-4b3b-a296-a87f969c24c0
Compared with
3f67cc95-d989-406d-b901-2aefedfca771
Captured
Nov 12 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 12 17:00Z
Market observation
11% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIDCA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDCA (WFO LWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013743
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-13, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-14T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIDCA in Washington DC in Nov 13, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.