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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026: PBE moves “San Francisco” down to 42% from 62%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 13. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 13 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Lightandtruth · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

62%42%

San Francisco · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−20 pts
Market at capture26%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026?

San Francisco · PRE-WINDOW

PBE53%+11 pts since publication
Kalshi35%+6 pts since publication
Gap+18

RESEARCH PBE Nov 14 05:00Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 14 05:00Z PBE 53% pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 14 05:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “San Francisco” from 62% to 42% (−20 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 13 11:00Z → Nov 13 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 29% to 26%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 13 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 13 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 13 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 13 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “San Francisco” from 62% to 42%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 38% to 30%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 45% to 31%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 60% to 49%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 71% to 41%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain38%30%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain45%31%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window60%49%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window71%41%yes
Guidance lead time26h20h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 13 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“San Francisco”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 13 10:12ZNov 13 13:36ZNov 13 17:00Z62%42%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 60% · Nov 13 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 62% · Nov 13 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 13 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 13 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 13 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.060
Nov 13 10:14ZKalshi mid33
Nov 13 10:44ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 10:50ZKalshi mid31
Nov 13 10:52ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 10:54ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.062
Nov 13 11:00ZKalshi mid29
Nov 13 11:02ZKalshi mid27
Nov 13 11:08ZKalshi mid27
Nov 13 11:10ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 11:24ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 12:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 12:18ZKalshi mid27
Nov 13 12:42ZKalshi mid27
Nov 13 12:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 13:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 13:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 13:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 13:12ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 13:14ZKalshi mid33
Nov 13 13:16ZKalshi mid33
Nov 13 13:22ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 13:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 14:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 14:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 14:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 14:12ZKalshi mid25
Nov 13 14:14ZKalshi mid25
Nov 13 15:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 15:02ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 15:10ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 15:24ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 15:26ZKalshi mid25
Nov 13 16:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 16:12ZKalshi mid25
Nov 13 16:24ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.042
Nov 13 17:00ZKalshi mid26

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 29% to 26%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 13 11:00ZNov 13 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 13 11:00ZNov 13 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T12Z
PBE62%42%
Market at capture29%26%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

San Francisco
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
9eb8c41d-2d7e-48c6-bb52-60cb8001328a
Compared with
558af51d-69a7-4055-a59d-49b4284a2221
Captured
Nov 13 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 13 17:00Z
Market observation
26% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLISFO (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLISFO (WFO MTR); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023234
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-15T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Nov 14, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.