Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026: Pittsburgh — it did not happen. How PBE scored.
Pittsburgh: NO. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 70% against a 72% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
Resolved Nov 15 12:02Z · verified against NWS CLI CLIPIT product 202611150636-KPBZ-CDUS41-CLIPIT
Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026?
Pittsburgh · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: Pittsburgh: NO; official check 0 in agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 70%; market at that moment 72%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.055, market 0.073 (n=29).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
Where will it rain on Nov 14, 2026 resolved with Pittsburgh: NO. The venue settled at Nov 15 12:02Z (expiration value 0.00); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLIPIT product 202611150636-KPBZ-CDUS41-CLIPIT — recorded 0 in, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | YES | 76% | — | 75% (mkt 87%) |
| Atlanta | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Austin | YES | 50% | — | 68% (mkt 74%) |
| Boston | NO | 2% | — | 6% (mkt 5%) |
| Chicago | NO | 6% | — | 8% (mkt 6%) |
| College Station | YES | 23% | — | 41% (mkt 42%) |
| Columbus | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 9%) |
| Dallas | YES | 45% | — | 71% (mkt 87%) |
| Washington DC | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Denver | NO | 43% | — | 20% (mkt 20%) |
| Newark | NO | 3% | — | 7% (mkt 7%) |
| Houston | NO | 10% | — | 12% (mkt 14%) |
| Los Angeles | YES | 84% | — | 90% (mkt 56%) |
| Lexington | NO | 2% (mkt 6%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Las Vegas | NO | 17% | — | 14% (mkt 10%) |
| Miami | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Minneapolis | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Milwaukee | NO | 7% | — | 3% (mkt 2%) |
| New Orleans | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| New York City | NO | 3% | — | 7% (mkt 8%) |
| Oklahoma City | YES | 53% | — | 78% (mkt 83%) |
| Philadelphia | NO | 4% | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Pittsburgh | NO | 69% | — | 70% (mkt 72%) |
| Providence | NO | 2% | — | 4% (mkt 2%) |
| San Antonio | YES | 62% | — | 66% (mkt 79%) |
| Seattle | YES | 86% (mkt 95%) | — | 91% (mkt 96%) |
| San Francisco | YES | 60% | — | 53% (mkt 35%) |
| Springfield | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Trenton | NO | 9% | — | 4% (mkt 4%) |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 29 contracts was 0.055 against 0.073 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.086 | 0.003 | 29 | 2 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.267 | 0.057 | 29 | 2 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.055 | 0.073 | 29 | 24 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.196 | 0.240 | 29 | 24 |
This event adds 29 resolved contracts to the model's live record (1247 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 7938bfbc-2654-4804-94ca-c7d4e400895e | c0143efe-a870-4a5e-b0c5-635021467129 | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 87% |
| Atlanta | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | acbd3e1b-a3d9-4be1-834c-3ed8afefcf1f | 84fb672d-428f-4a22-9452-0c3d03370f8d | Nov 13 23:00Z | Nov 13 23:00Z | — |
| Austin | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 1e5fd411-5751-430c-bcb8-5b412f7ba486 | 4efda96b-c246-45ad-94ab-09ef1a77a434 | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 74% |
| Boston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 2b91e03b-d27d-4019-a022-d36810913db8 | a880d32a-5aa2-448c-b77a-c29e9f5c090d | Nov 13 23:00Z | Nov 13 23:00Z | 5% |
| Chicago | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 371107cc-2eb4-4de6-87c0-b1235b6847ef | 17c169d3-e547-4351-958f-7461d3f88993 | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 6% |
| College Station | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | d3cea873-56d3-4887-99fa-867a900f5618 | 7ae823bd-9c08-4719-a379-cf873a2c6429 | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 42% |
| Columbus | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | f399e354-02e7-4dd2-8b72-a53834bc40d2 | 4ec3144f-1296-4ef3-bebe-c5a99690660e | Nov 13 23:00Z | Nov 13 23:00Z | 9% |
| Dallas | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 2d92d429-9928-43c1-b4e5-3619d81b57f5 | e2f6ae7d-85ba-403d-a47e-307ebaba9865 | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 87% |
| Washington DC | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 7dcf48f2-f492-4096-b2b1-83b4e8117fc8 | a0236101-1692-4279-9834-680892680c27 | Nov 13 23:00Z | Nov 13 23:00Z | 2% |
| Denver | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 75b022b9-6b37-4f97-9d6c-307d46cdef1c | e8c5cd3a-ea12-431f-9b51-82666b324994 | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 20% |
| Newark | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | e8b6d040-de3a-4f55-93fb-9d363c6d6747 | bfbf6d2b-1513-44e8-90f0-1fe59d442ba8 | Nov 13 23:00Z | Nov 13 23:00Z | 7% |
| Houston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 670608d8-8506-4f8f-a25c-45ebc4fa69cc | 815247d5-00ad-43b1-bade-debd7086996c | Nov 14 05:00Z | Nov 14 05:00Z | 14% |
Source families: NWS CLI CLIABQ product 202611151013-KABQ-CDUS45-CLIABQ · NWS CLI CLIATL product 202611150929-KFFC-CDUS42-CLIATL · NWS CLI CLIAUS product 202611150747-KEWX-CDUS44-CLIAUS · NWS CLI CLIBOS product 202611150528-KBOX-CDUS41-CLIBOS · NWS CLI CLIORD product 202611150633-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIORD · NWS CLI CLICLL product 202611150818-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL · NWS CLI CLICMH product 202611150535-KILN-CDUS41-CLICMH · NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202611150655-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW · NWS CLI CLIDCA product 202611150721-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIDCA · NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202611150737-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN · NWS CLI CLIEWR product 202611150617-KOKX-CDUS41-CLIEWR · NWS CLI CLIHOU product 202611150818-KHGX-CDUS44-CLIHOU. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIPIT (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIPIT (WFO PBZ); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00094823
- Measurement
- Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
- Rounding
- Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
- Exceptions
- Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-15T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
- Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
- IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
- Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112
Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.