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New Orleans — photograph (Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 15, 2026: PBE moves “New Orleans” up to 42% from 27%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 15 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

27%42%

New Orleans · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+15 pts
Market at capture48%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 15, 2026?

New Orleans · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday12%−30 pts since publication
Kalshi73%+35 pts since publication
Gap−61

At KMSY: high so far 57.9°F · latest 57.2°F () · rain so far 0.00 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Nov 15 20:14Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 15 07:19Z PBE 20% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 07:19Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “New Orleans” from 27% to 42% (+15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 14 23:00Z → Nov 15 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 38% to 48%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 14 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 14 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 15 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 15 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “New Orleans” from 27% to 42%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 31% to 51%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 19% to 17%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 33% to 58%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 24% to 32%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain31%51%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain19%17%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window33%58%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window24%32%yes
Guidance lead time12h6h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 15 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“New Orleans”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 14 10:12ZNov 14 19:36ZNov 15 05:00Z27%42%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 14 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Nov 14 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 27% · Nov 14 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 42% · Nov 15 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 15 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 14 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.027
Nov 14 10:14ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 10:16ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 10:24ZKalshi mid23
Nov 14 10:26ZKalshi mid26
Nov 14 10:28ZKalshi mid27
Nov 14 10:44ZKalshi mid32
Nov 14 10:46ZKalshi mid33
Nov 14 10:48ZKalshi mid32
Nov 14 10:52ZKalshi mid33
Nov 14 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.026
Nov 14 11:00ZKalshi mid34
Nov 14 11:02ZKalshi mid31
Nov 14 11:04ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 11:06ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 11:08ZKalshi mid29
Nov 14 11:26ZKalshi mid29
Nov 14 11:30ZKalshi mid31
Nov 14 11:32ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 11:34ZKalshi mid32
Nov 14 11:42ZKalshi mid33
Nov 14 12:00ZKalshi mid33
Nov 14 12:02ZKalshi mid31
Nov 14 12:04ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 12:32ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 12:50ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 13:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 13:48ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 13:50ZKalshi mid27
Nov 14 14:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 14 14:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 14:06ZKalshi mid27
Nov 14 14:08ZKalshi mid26
Nov 14 14:54ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 15:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 15:12ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 15:32ZKalshi mid29
Nov 14 15:56ZKalshi mid29
Nov 14 15:58ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 16:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 16:02ZKalshi mid26
Nov 14 16:04ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 16:06ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 16:18ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 16:54ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.027
Nov 14 17:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 17:02ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 17:04ZKalshi mid22
Nov 14 17:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 14 17:10ZKalshi mid23
Nov 14 17:12ZKalshi mid23
Nov 14 17:14ZKalshi mid25
Nov 14 18:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 14 18:02ZKalshi mid25
Nov 14 18:04ZKalshi mid23
Nov 14 18:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 14 18:58ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 19:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 14 19:12ZKalshi mid26
Nov 14 19:16ZKalshi mid26
Nov 14 19:36ZKalshi mid28
Nov 14 19:38ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 19:42ZKalshi mid31
Nov 14 19:48ZKalshi mid30
Nov 14 19:50ZKalshi mid31
Nov 14 19:56ZKalshi mid32
Nov 14 20:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 14 20:02ZKalshi mid33
Nov 14 20:50ZKalshi mid34
Nov 14 20:52ZKalshi mid35
Nov 14 20:54ZKalshi mid36
Nov 14 21:00ZKalshi mid37
Nov 14 21:02ZKalshi mid38
Nov 14 21:12ZKalshi mid38
Nov 14 21:18ZKalshi mid39
Nov 14 21:22ZKalshi mid39
Nov 14 21:32ZKalshi mid41
Nov 14 21:52ZKalshi mid40
Nov 14 21:54ZKalshi mid40
Nov 14 22:00ZKalshi mid39
Nov 14 22:02ZKalshi mid40
Nov 14 22:12ZKalshi mid40
Nov 14 22:42ZKalshi mid37
Nov 14 22:44ZKalshi mid37
Nov 14 22:50ZKalshi mid37
Nov 14 22:54ZKalshi mid38
Nov 14 22:56ZKalshi mid39
Nov 14 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.027
Nov 14 23:00ZKalshi mid38
Nov 14 23:04ZKalshi mid40
Nov 14 23:10ZKalshi mid40
Nov 14 23:42ZKalshi mid38
Nov 14 23:58ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 00:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 00:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 00:04ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 00:06ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 00:12ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 00:30ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 00:36ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 00:38ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 00:44ZKalshi mid40
Nov 15 00:48ZKalshi mid40
Nov 15 00:54ZKalshi mid40
Nov 15 01:00ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 01:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 01:06ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 01:08ZKalshi mid40
Nov 15 01:10ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 01:28ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 01:30ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 01:32ZKalshi mid40
Nov 15 01:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 15 01:36ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 01:38ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 01:40ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 01:44ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 01:46ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 01:48ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 01:50ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 01:52ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 01:56ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 01:58ZKalshi mid50
Nov 15 02:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 15 02:02ZKalshi mid50
Nov 15 02:04ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 02:10ZKalshi mid45
Nov 15 02:12ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 02:14ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 02:16ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 02:18ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 02:22ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 02:28ZKalshi mid42
Nov 15 02:30ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 02:32ZKalshi mid40
Nov 15 02:34ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 02:40ZKalshi mid44
Nov 15 02:42ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 02:44ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 02:48ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 02:54ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 02:56ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 02:58ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 03:00ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 03:02ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 03:06ZKalshi mid46
Nov 15 03:08ZKalshi mid44
Nov 15 03:12ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 03:14ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 03:20ZKalshi mid39
Nov 15 03:28ZKalshi mid39
Nov 15 03:30ZKalshi mid38
Nov 15 03:32ZKalshi mid38
Nov 15 03:36ZKalshi mid38
Nov 15 03:54ZKalshi mid38
Nov 15 03:56ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 04:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 15 04:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 15 04:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 15 04:08ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 04:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 15 04:14ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 04:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 04:20ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 04:22ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 04:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 04:36ZKalshi mid47
Nov 15 04:38ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 04:54ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 04:58ZKalshi mid48
Nov 15 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.042
Nov 15 05:00ZKalshi mid48

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 38% to 48%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 14 23:00ZNov 15 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 14 23:00ZNov 15 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T00Z
PBE27%42%
Market at capture38%48%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

New Orleans
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
298d557d-7f8f-40ec-b3a0-c9fff21da808
Compared with
288ef3f4-138c-497b-8d45-824d73891ddf
Captured
Nov 15 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 15 05:00Z
Market observation
48% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMSY (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMSY (WFO LIX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012916
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-16T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMSY in New Orleans in Nov 15, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.