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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 16, 2026: PBE moves “Houston” up to 63% from 43%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 15 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

43%63%

Houston · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+20 pts
Market at capture71%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 16, 2026?

Houston · PRE-WINDOW

PBE63%0 pts since publication
Kalshi78%+16 pts since publication
Gap−15

RESEARCH PBE Nov 15 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Houston” from 43% to 63% (+20 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 15 11:00Z → Nov 15 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 62% to 71%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 15 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 15 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 15 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 15 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Houston” from 43% to 63%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 35% to 59%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 30% to 35%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 42% to 69%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 48% to 51%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain35%59%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain30%35%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window42%69%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window48%51%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 15 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Houston”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 15 10:12ZNov 15 13:36ZNov 15 17:00Z43%63%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 45% · Nov 15 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 43% · Nov 15 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 63% · Nov 15 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 15 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 15 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.045
Nov 15 10:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 10:32ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 10:34ZKalshi mid61
Nov 15 10:36ZKalshi mid61
Nov 15 10:46ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 10:50ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 10:52ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 10:56ZKalshi mid62
Nov 15 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.043
Nov 15 11:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 15 11:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 11:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 15 11:18ZKalshi mid67
Nov 15 11:22ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 11:36ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 11:42ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 11:44ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 12:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 12:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 12:08ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 12:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 12:14ZKalshi mid68
Nov 15 12:16ZKalshi mid67
Nov 15 12:38ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 12:40ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 12:54ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 12:56ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 13:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 13:06ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 13:18ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 13:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 13:42ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 14:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 14:02ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 14:04ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 14:06ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 14:08ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 14:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 14:14ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 14:18ZKalshi mid66
Nov 15 14:24ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 14:34ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 14:38ZKalshi mid62
Nov 15 14:40ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 14:48ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 15:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 15:06ZKalshi mid67
Nov 15 15:08ZKalshi mid65
Nov 15 15:12ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 15:14ZKalshi mid64
Nov 15 15:44ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 16:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 16:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 16:10ZKalshi mid62
Nov 15 16:14ZKalshi mid63
Nov 15 16:16ZKalshi mid70
Nov 15 16:18ZKalshi mid69
Nov 15 16:20ZKalshi mid68
Nov 15 16:26ZKalshi mid68
Nov 15 16:54ZKalshi mid71
Nov 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.063
Nov 15 17:00ZKalshi mid71

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 62% to 71%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 15 11:00ZNov 15 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 15 11:00ZNov 15 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T12Z
PBE43%63%
Market at capture62%71%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Houston
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
34339305-4ef0-4591-8db3-0a5177b25b74
Compared with
e1d021cc-f35f-4b0b-b61d-9fd3d039ca8e
Captured
Nov 15 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 15 17:00Z
Market observation
71% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIHOU (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIHOU (WFO HGX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012918
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-17T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Nov 16, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.