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New Orleans — photograph (Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 2, 2026: PBE moves “New Orleans” up to 47% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 1. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 1 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%47%

New Orleans · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+15 pts
Market at capture51%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 2, 2026?

New Orleans · PRE-WINDOW

PBE47%0 pts since publication
Kalshi54%+2 pts since publication
Gap−7

RESEARCH PBE Nov 1 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “New Orleans” from 32% to 47% (+15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 1 11:00Z → Nov 1 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 51%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 1 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 1 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 1 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “New Orleans” from 32% to 47%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 28% to 23%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 13% to 43%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 60% to 43%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 28% to 62%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain28%23%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain13%43%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window60%43%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window28%62%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 1 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“New Orleans”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 10:10ZNov 1 13:35ZNov 1 17:00Z32%47%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 30% · Nov 1 10:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 1 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 47% · Nov 1 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 1 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 10:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.030
Nov 1 10:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 10:14ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 10:16ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 10:18ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 10:20ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 10:22ZKalshi mid55
Nov 1 10:24ZKalshi mid55
Nov 1 10:26ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 10:30ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 10:32ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 10:44ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.032
Nov 1 11:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 11:08ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 11:24ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 11:32ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 11:46ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 11:48ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 12:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 12:12ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 12:14ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 12:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 12:24ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 12:52ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 12:54ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 13:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 13:02ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 13:12ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 13:16ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 13:18ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 13:32ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 13:46ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 13:50ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 14:00ZKalshi mid47
Nov 1 14:08ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 14:12ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 14:26ZKalshi mid48
Nov 1 14:34ZKalshi mid55
Nov 1 14:36ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 14:40ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 14:42ZKalshi mid54
Nov 1 14:52ZKalshi mid53
Nov 1 14:56ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:02ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:12ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:52ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:54ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:24ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:36ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.047
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid51

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 51%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 11:00ZNov 1 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 1 11:00ZNov 1 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T12Z
PBE32%47%
Market at capture52%51%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

New Orleans
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b85c190a-82dc-49e2-99f8-9afcb73a4638
Compared with
c28459a9-3637-406b-9b7e-731fed35c6d1
Captured
Nov 1 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 1 17:00Z
Market observation
51% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMSY (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMSY (WFO LIX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012916
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-02, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-03T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMSY in New Orleans in Nov 2, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.