Where will it rain on Nov 2, 2026: Dallas — it did not happen. How PBE scored.
Dallas: NO. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 74% against a 49% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
Resolved Nov 3 13:00Z · verified against NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202611030755-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW
Where will it rain on Nov 2, 2026?
Dallas · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: Dallas: NO; official check 0 in agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 74%; market at that moment 49%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.054, market 0.056 (n=30).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
Where will it rain on Nov 2, 2026 resolved with Dallas: NO. The venue settled at Nov 3 13:00Z (expiration value 0.00); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202611030755-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW — recorded 0 in, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | YES | 82% | — | 84% (mkt 89%) |
| Atlanta | NO | 10% | — | 3% (mkt 4%) |
| Austin | NO | 6% | — | 2% (mkt 4%) |
| Boston | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Chicago | NO | 33% | — | 24% (mkt 41%) |
| College Station | NO | 5% | — | 2% (mkt 6%) |
| Columbus | YES | 51% | — | 57% (mkt 53%) |
| Dallas | NO | 79% | — | 74% (mkt 49%) |
| Washington DC | NO | 5% | — | 5% (mkt 3%) |
| Denver | YES | 84% | — | 66% (mkt 91%) |
| Newark | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Houston | NO | 13% | — | 8% (mkt 9%) |
| Los Angeles | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Lexington | YES | 74% | — | 85% (mkt 90%) |
| Las Vegas | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Miami | YES | 97% | — | 97% |
| Minneapolis | YES | 98% | — | 98% (mkt 98%) |
| Milwaukee | YES | 52% | — | 52% (mkt 68%) |
| New Orleans | NO | 30% | — | 43% (mkt 42%) |
| New York City | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Oklahoma City | YES | 90% | — | 96% (mkt 94%) |
| Philadelphia | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Phoenix | NO | 22% | — | 21% (mkt 2%) |
| Pittsburgh | NO | 23% | — | 15% (mkt 12%) |
| Providence | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| San Antonio | NO | 4% | — | 2% (mkt 4%) |
| Seattle | NO | 2% | — | 2% (mkt 7%) |
| San Francisco | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Springfield | NO | 56% | — | 42% (mkt 38%) |
| Trenton | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 30 contracts was 0.054 against 0.056 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.063 | — | 30 | 0 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.215 | — | 30 | 0 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.054 | 0.056 | 30 | 20 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.187 | 0.208 | 30 | 20 |
This event adds 30 resolved contracts to the model's live record (897 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 2ee0b15a-377b-4897-bab4-68d7dfaf8090 | ad54dee0-f874-4e82-93dc-9a5d16d37fa5 | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 89% |
| Atlanta | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | f6c1ec14-b7cf-4e22-ae81-00448320d1ce | 8dc55da0-39c4-48a1-9c56-e9419cd9e890 | Nov 1 23:00Z | Nov 1 23:00Z | 4% |
| Austin | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 1226f86e-2e19-4552-97be-5a43f1b5b63c | 8240d2e7-f6ce-437d-8c0e-7326dfc12153 | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 4% |
| Boston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | d5c965e2-b17b-4892-ac0c-0d0496210578 | 0eb3d4f0-e280-4a11-a6af-a171556e078d | Nov 1 23:06Z | Nov 1 23:00Z | — |
| Chicago | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | a9103e05-2a27-4b3e-b656-7fc116b42667 | 197ff95f-d10f-419d-ac64-330e4e2cae94 | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 41% |
| College Station | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | c2bacb86-ab0f-47c9-9aae-b9d147682ed1 | c4b76639-f582-462d-8aaf-135134d94d5d | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 6% |
| Columbus | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 35f5d359-e0a4-4e5b-abae-895175e2cb0d | e4ccbf87-d513-4278-a8ca-887c1663f9c9 | Nov 1 23:06Z | Nov 1 23:00Z | 53% |
| Dallas | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | fa1e0d44-1233-42af-b2e5-b1c0fe50c352 | c57e95d2-5f94-4d09-bfdf-b2844aeffe3b | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 49% |
| Washington DC | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | b026834b-bdf2-4baf-9a4a-191db4deaf12 | 29502951-b838-4c9c-9165-e78b395d3de9 | Nov 1 23:08Z | Nov 1 23:00Z | 3% |
| Denver | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | f149704d-efde-4e7c-97c0-fefd83452361 | d935d950-7433-4a0d-9c6c-c199ae6b515a | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 91% |
| Newark | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 45d4f696-623d-410b-b03a-eda19c127ec8 | 492e7378-be82-44ea-8922-f938f2c42c94 | Nov 1 23:06Z | Nov 1 23:00Z | — |
| Houston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 6b60c919-fc8f-4d2c-abbb-083ea4c21fb0 | 36b4131a-00f6-4d5b-9a6c-810eb6cab2f5 | Nov 2 05:00Z | Nov 2 05:00Z | 9% |
Source families: NWS CLI CLIABQ product 202611031015-KABQ-CDUS45-CLIABQ · NWS CLI CLIATL product 202611030917-KFFC-CDUS42-CLIATL · NWS CLI CLIAUS product 202611030745-KEWX-CDUS44-CLIAUS · NWS CLI CLIBOS product 202611030525-KBOX-CDUS41-CLIBOS · NWS CLI CLIORD product 202611030659-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIORD · NWS CLI CLICLL product 202611030630-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL · NWS CLI CLICMH product 202611030542-KILN-CDUS41-CLICMH · NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202611030755-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW · NWS CLI CLIDCA product 202611030727-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIDCA · NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202611030736-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN · NWS CLI CLIEWR product 202611030619-KOKX-CDUS41-CLIEWR · NWS CLI CLIHOU product 202611030630-KHGX-CDUS44-CLIHOU. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIDFW (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDFW (WFO FWD); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003927
- Measurement
- Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-02, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
- Rounding
- Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
- Exceptions
- Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-03T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
- Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
- IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
- Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112
Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.