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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 3, 2026: PBE moves “Miami” up to 87% from 76%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

76%87%

Miami · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture88%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 3, 2026?

Miami · PRE-WINDOW

PBE87%0 pts since publication
Kalshi87%0 pts since publication
Gap0

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Miami” from 76% to 87% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 11:00Z → Nov 2 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 87% to 88%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 11:00Z (data cutoff Nov 2 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 2 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 2 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Miami” from 76% to 87%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 36% to 57%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 54% to 58%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 76% to 87%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 90% to 95%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain36%57%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain54%58%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window76%87%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window90%95%yes
Guidance lead time23h17h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Miami”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 2 10:12ZNov 2 13:36ZNov 2 17:00Z76%87%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 78% · Nov 2 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 76% · Nov 2 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 87% · Nov 2 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.078
Nov 2 10:12ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 10:14ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 10:16ZKalshi mid86
Nov 2 10:20ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 10:28ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.076
Nov 2 11:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 12:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 12:56ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 13:00ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:00ZKalshi mid89
Nov 2 14:02ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 14:06ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 14:48ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 15:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 15:42ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 15:58ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:12ZKalshi mid87
Nov 2 16:46ZKalshi mid88
Nov 2 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.087
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid88

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 87% to 88%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 11:00ZNov 2 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 2 11:00ZNov 2 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T12Z
PBE76%87%
Market at capture87%88%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Miami
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b00542a3-d2b2-4775-a9cd-62f0b6a3c3da
Compared with
0d560709-5fdd-4ada-a69b-765509f70123
Captured
Nov 2 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 17:00Z
Market observation
88% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-03, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-04T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Nov 3, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.