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Minneapolis — photograph (Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri · CC BY 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 5, 2026: PBE moves “Minneapolis” down to 50% from 68%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 5 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri · CC BY 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

68%50%

Minneapolis · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−18 pts
Market at capture69%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 5, 2026?

Minneapolis · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday35%−15 pts since publication
Kalshi58%−4 pts since publication
Gap−23

At KMSP: high so far 50.0°F · latest 48.2°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Nov 5 06:30Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 5 06:30Z PBE 35% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 5 06:30Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Minneapolis” from 68% to 50% (−18 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 4 23:00Z → Nov 5 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 62% to 69%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 4 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 4 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 5 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 5 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Minneapolis” from 68% to 50%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 33% to 34%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 76% to 49%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 43% to 40%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 76% to 51%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain33%34%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain76%49%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window43%40%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window76%51%yes
Guidance lead time12h6h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 5 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Minneapolis”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 4 10:16ZNov 4 19:38ZNov 5 05:00Z68%50%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 68% · Nov 4 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Nov 5 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 5 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 4 10:16ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 10:20ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 10:22ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 10:26ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 10:34ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 10:40ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 10:42ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 10:44ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 10:46ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 10:50ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 10:56ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 10:58ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 11:00ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 11:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 11:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 11:12ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 11:14ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 11:18ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 11:24ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 11:32ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 11:38ZKalshi mid75
Nov 4 11:40ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 11:46ZKalshi mid76
Nov 4 11:50ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 12:00ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 12:04ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 12:10ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 12:12ZKalshi mid73
Nov 4 12:22ZKalshi mid74
Nov 4 12:36ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 12:40ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 12:46ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 12:50ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 12:52ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 12:58ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 13:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 13:04ZKalshi mid71
Nov 4 13:06ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 13:14ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 13:16ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 13:18ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 13:34ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 13:36ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 13:38ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 13:40ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 13:42ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 13:46ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 13:48ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 13:50ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 13:52ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 13:56ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 13:58ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 14:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 14:02ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 14:04ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 14:06ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 14:08ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 14:12ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 14:14ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 14:18ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 14:20ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 14:24ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 14:42ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 14:44ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 14:46ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 14:48ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 14:50ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 14:54ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 14:56ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 14:58ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 15:00ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 15:08ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:14ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 15:30ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:36ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:46ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:50ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 15:54ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 15:58ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 16:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 16:04ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 16:10ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 16:28ZKalshi mid56
Nov 4 16:32ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 16:54ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 17:00ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 17:02ZKalshi mid55
Nov 4 17:12ZKalshi mid54
Nov 4 17:14ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 17:18ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 17:20ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 17:25ZKalshi mid52
Nov 4 17:26ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 17:36ZKalshi mid51
Nov 4 17:38ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 17:48ZKalshi mid48
Nov 4 17:50ZKalshi mid47
Nov 4 17:52ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 17:54ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 18:00ZKalshi mid49
Nov 4 18:02ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 18:04ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 18:06ZKalshi mid50
Nov 4 18:08ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 18:20ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 18:24ZKalshi mid53
Nov 4 18:38ZKalshi mid57
Nov 4 18:40ZKalshi mid58
Nov 4 18:42ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 18:54ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 19:00ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 19:14ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 19:56ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 19:58ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 20:00ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 20:04ZKalshi mid70
Nov 4 20:06ZKalshi mid69
Nov 4 20:14ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 20:16ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 20:32ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 20:34ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 20:40ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 21:00ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 21:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 21:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 21:08ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 21:10ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 21:14ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 21:16ZKalshi mid66
Nov 4 21:18ZKalshi mid67
Nov 4 21:20ZKalshi mid68
Nov 4 21:30ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 21:34ZKalshi mid65
Nov 4 21:36ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 21:38ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 21:48ZKalshi mid64
Nov 4 22:00ZKalshi mid63
Nov 4 22:12ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 22:20ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 22:24ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 22:26ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 22:38ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 22:40ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 22:42ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 22:48ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 22:54ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 22:58ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.068
Nov 4 23:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 23:02ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 23:12ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 23:14ZKalshi mid62
Nov 4 23:18ZKalshi mid61
Nov 4 23:22ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 23:24ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 23:26ZKalshi mid59
Nov 4 23:42ZKalshi mid60
Nov 4 23:50ZKalshi mid61
Nov 5 00:00ZKalshi mid61
Nov 5 00:02ZKalshi mid60
Nov 5 00:06ZKalshi mid60
Nov 5 00:16ZKalshi mid60
Nov 5 00:20ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 00:22ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 00:24ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 00:38ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 00:46ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 00:48ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 01:00ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 01:02ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 01:04ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 01:06ZKalshi mid61
Nov 5 01:08ZKalshi mid60
Nov 5 01:20ZKalshi mid60
Nov 5 01:24ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 01:30ZKalshi mid57
Nov 5 01:32ZKalshi mid57
Nov 5 01:38ZKalshi mid56
Nov 5 01:54ZKalshi mid58
Nov 5 01:58ZKalshi mid57
Nov 5 02:00ZKalshi mid57
Nov 5 02:12ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 02:14ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 02:16ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 02:26ZKalshi mid66
Nov 5 02:30ZKalshi mid66
Nov 5 02:42ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 02:44ZKalshi mid64
Nov 5 02:58ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 03:00ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 03:02ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 03:06ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 03:08ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 03:10ZKalshi mid69
Nov 5 03:12ZKalshi mid66
Nov 5 03:28ZKalshi mid66
Nov 5 03:50ZKalshi mid63
Nov 5 03:52ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 04:00ZKalshi mid62
Nov 5 04:02ZKalshi mid68
Nov 5 04:04ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 04:06ZKalshi mid65
Nov 5 04:18ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 04:20ZKalshi mid67
Nov 5 04:22ZKalshi mid66
Nov 5 04:46ZKalshi mid69
Nov 5 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.050
Nov 5 05:00ZKalshi mid69

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 62% to 69%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 4 23:00ZNov 5 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 4 23:00ZNov 5 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-04T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-04T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T00Z
PBE68%50%
Market at capture62%69%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Minneapolis
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
e5eb1454-0493-4162-8955-ac47edee4250
Compared with
11198bd6-c231-4cfd-954b-eeca7fc1a836
Captured
Nov 5 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 5 05:00Z
Market observation
69% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMSP (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMSP (WFO MPX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014922
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-05, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-06T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMSP in Minneapolis in Nov 5, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.