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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 7, 2026: PBE moves “Seattle” up to 98% from 88%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 6 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

88%98%

Seattle · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture99%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 7, 2026?

Seattle · PRE-WINDOW

PBE98%0 pts since publication
Kalshi97%0 pts since publication
Gap+1

RESEARCH PBE Nov 7 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Seattle” from 88% to 98% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 6 17:00Z → Nov 6 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 97% to 99%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 6 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 6 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 6 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 6 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Seattle” from 88% to 98%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 62% to 68%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 84% to 100%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 71% to 77%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 88% to 100%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain62%68%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain84%100%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window71%77%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window88%100%yes
Guidance lead time20h14h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 6 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Seattle”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 6 10:12ZNov 6 16:36ZNov 6 23:00Z88%98%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 91% · Nov 6 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 85% · Nov 6 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 88% · Nov 6 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 98% · Nov 6 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 6 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 6 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.091
Nov 6 10:12ZKalshi mid97
Nov 6 10:22ZKalshi mid97
Nov 6 10:52ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 10:54ZKalshi mid93
Nov 6 10:56ZKalshi mid92
Nov 6 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.085
Nov 6 11:00ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 11:10ZKalshi mid94
Nov 6 12:00ZKalshi mid94
Nov 6 13:00ZKalshi mid94
Nov 6 13:18ZKalshi mid94
Nov 6 13:32ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 13:34ZKalshi mid96
Nov 6 13:40ZKalshi mid96
Nov 6 13:48ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 14:00ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 14:26ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 14:36ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 14:38ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 15:00ZKalshi mid95
Nov 6 15:22ZKalshi mid96
Nov 6 15:24ZKalshi mid96
Nov 6 16:00ZKalshi mid96
Nov 6 16:32ZKalshi mid97
Nov 6 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.088
Nov 6 17:00ZKalshi mid97
Nov 6 18:00ZKalshi mid97
Nov 6 18:24ZKalshi mid98
Nov 6 18:28ZKalshi mid99
Nov 6 19:00ZKalshi mid99
Nov 6 20:00ZKalshi mid99
Nov 6 20:08ZKalshi mid99
Nov 6 21:00ZKalshi mid99
Nov 6 22:00ZKalshi mid99
Nov 6 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.098
Nov 6 23:00ZKalshi mid99

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 97% to 99%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 6 17:00ZNov 6 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 6 17:00ZNov 6 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-06T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-06T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-06T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-06T18Z
PBE88%98%
Market at capture97%99%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Seattle
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
214059fb-bbf5-42c3-acc5-86a573bb820a
Compared with
9c38e105-c80d-4ac0-9cdf-99b95215edb1
Captured
Nov 6 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 6 23:00Z
Market observation
99% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLISEA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLISEA (WFO SEW); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00024233
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-07, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-08T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLISEA in Seattle in Nov 7, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.