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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 8, 2026: PBE moves “Miami” down to 16% from 28%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 7 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

28%16%

Miami · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−12 pts
Market at capture31%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 8, 2026?

Miami · PRE-WINDOW

PBE16%0 pts since publication
Kalshi31%+6 pts since publication
Gap−15

RESEARCH PBE Nov 7 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Miami” from 28% to 16% (−12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 7 17:00Z → Nov 7 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 25% to 31%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 7 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 7 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 7 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 7 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Miami” from 28% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 16% to 19%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 25% to 7%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 35% to 34%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 36% to 22%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain16%19%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain25%7%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window35%34%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window36%22%yes
Guidance lead time17h11h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Miami”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 7 10:12ZNov 7 16:36ZNov 7 23:00Z28%16%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Nov 7 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 19% · Nov 7 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 28% · Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Nov 7 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 7 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.020
Nov 7 10:14ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 10:16ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 10:20ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 10:54ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 10:58ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.019
Nov 7 11:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 11:04ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 11:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 11:26ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 11:30ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 11:38ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 11:40ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 12:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 12:02ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 12:04ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 12:14ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 12:16ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 12:30ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 12:40ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 12:42ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 12:58ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 13:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 13:50ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 14:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 14:06ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 15:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 15:28ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 15:38ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 15:42ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 15:44ZKalshi mid29
Nov 7 15:58ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 16:02ZKalshi mid29
Nov 7 16:04ZKalshi mid30
Nov 7 16:06ZKalshi mid31
Nov 7 16:24ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 16:26ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 16:28ZKalshi mid27
Nov 7 16:46ZKalshi mid27
Nov 7 16:52ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.028
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 17:02ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 17:04ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 17:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 17:08ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 17:10ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 17:12ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 17:14ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 17:16ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 17:20ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 17:30ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 18:06ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 18:08ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 18:10ZKalshi mid27
Nov 7 18:16ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 18:18ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 18:44ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 18:52ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 18:54ZKalshi mid30
Nov 7 18:56ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 19:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 19:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 19:14ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 19:20ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 19:22ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 19:26ZKalshi mid27
Nov 7 19:46ZKalshi mid27
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 7 20:02ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 20:40ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 20:42ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 20:56ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 21:02ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 21:08ZKalshi mid22
Nov 7 21:42ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 21:50ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 21:52ZKalshi mid21
Nov 7 21:58ZKalshi mid24
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 22:02ZKalshi mid20
Nov 7 22:36ZKalshi mid23
Nov 7 22:40ZKalshi mid25
Nov 7 22:46ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 22:48ZKalshi mid28
Nov 7 22:52ZKalshi mid30
Nov 7 22:56ZKalshi mid30
Nov 7 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.016
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid31

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 25% to 31%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T18Z
PBE28%16%
Market at capture25%31%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Miami
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
b8e1f51a-93f5-44ed-b7eb-0add7e0dbb6e
Compared with
9b3785ca-dad6-45aa-b826-e242e2928f84
Captured
Nov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 7 23:00Z
Market observation
31% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-09T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Nov 8, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.