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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Nov 9, 2026: PBE moves “Houston” up to 82% from 72%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 9 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

72%82%

Houston · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture84%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Nov 9, 2026?

Houston · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday99%+17 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KHOU: high so far 64.9°F · latest 60.8°F () · rain so far 0.16 in · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Nov 9 17:31Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 9 11:01Z PBE 70% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 11:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 9 14:11Z PBE 60% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 13:16Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 9 16:21Z PBE 50% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 15:46Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 9 17:31Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Nov 9 17:31Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Houston” from 72% to 82% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 8 23:00Z → Nov 9 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 83% to 84%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 8 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 8 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 9 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 9 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Houston” from 72% to 82%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 52% to 55%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 34% to 49%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 88% to 91%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 63% to 81%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain52%55%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain34%49%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window88%91%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window63%81%yes
Guidance lead time12h6h—
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 9 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Houston”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 8 10:12ZNov 8 19:36ZNov 9 05:00Z72%82%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 74% · Nov 8 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 75% · Nov 8 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 70% · Nov 8 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 72% · Nov 8 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 82% · Nov 9 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 9 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 8 10:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.074
Nov 8 10:14ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 10:16ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 10:18ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 10:22ZKalshi mid76
Nov 8 10:34ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 10:36ZKalshi mid76
Nov 8 10:46ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 10:50ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.075
Nov 8 11:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 8 11:04ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 11:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 11:08ZKalshi mid75
Nov 8 11:10ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 11:12ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 11:14ZKalshi mid71
Nov 8 11:16ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 11:20ZKalshi mid70
Nov 8 11:24ZKalshi mid71
Nov 8 11:50ZKalshi mid69
Nov 8 11:52ZKalshi mid70
Nov 8 11:54ZKalshi mid69
Nov 8 12:00ZKalshi mid70
Nov 8 12:06ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 12:20ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 12:28ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 12:34ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 12:38ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 12:50ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 12:58ZKalshi mid75
Nov 8 13:00ZKalshi mid75
Nov 8 13:04ZKalshi mid76
Nov 8 13:06ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 13:08ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 13:10ZKalshi mid84
Nov 8 13:12ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 13:14ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 13:16ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 13:18ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 13:20ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 13:22ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 13:28ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 13:30ZKalshi mid76
Nov 8 13:32ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 13:34ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 14:00ZKalshi mid74
Nov 8 14:02ZKalshi mid75
Nov 8 14:32ZKalshi mid71
Nov 8 14:34ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 14:38ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 14:42ZKalshi mid71
Nov 8 14:44ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 14:46ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 15:00ZKalshi mid72
Nov 8 15:12ZKalshi mid73
Nov 8 15:50ZKalshi mid76
Nov 8 15:52ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 15:54ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 16:00ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 16:04ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 16:06ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 16:08ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 16:16ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 16:22ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 16:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 16:28ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 16:34ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 16:36ZKalshi mid77
Nov 8 16:40ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.070
Nov 8 17:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 17:18ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 17:22ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 17:26ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 18:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 18:02ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 18:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 18:12ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 18:38ZKalshi mid79
Nov 8 18:40ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 18:42ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 18:44ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 18:46ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 18:56ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 19:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 19:02ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 19:10ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 19:20ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 19:28ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 19:38ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 20:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 20:06ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 20:44ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 21:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 21:02ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 21:44ZKalshi mid79
Nov 8 21:48ZKalshi mid79
Nov 8 21:54ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 21:56ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 22:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 22:04ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 22:10ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 22:26ZKalshi mid79
Nov 8 22:36ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 22:40ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 22:46ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 22:48ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 22:52ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.072
Nov 8 23:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 23:02ZKalshi mid85
Nov 8 23:08ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 23:10ZKalshi mid82
Nov 8 23:16ZKalshi mid76
Nov 8 23:20ZKalshi mid78
Nov 8 23:22ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 23:24ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 23:28ZKalshi mid83
Nov 8 23:30ZKalshi mid81
Nov 8 23:40ZKalshi mid80
Nov 8 23:58ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:00ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:02ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 00:06ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 00:16ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:18ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 00:20ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 00:22ZKalshi mid85
Nov 9 00:26ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 00:28ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:34ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 00:40ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 00:44ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 01:00ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 01:02ZKalshi mid79
Nov 9 01:06ZKalshi mid78
Nov 9 01:12ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 01:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 01:16ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 01:18ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 01:56ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 01:58ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 02:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 02:18ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 02:22ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 02:36ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 02:38ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 02:40ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 02:44ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 02:56ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 03:00ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 03:02ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 03:10ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 03:14ZKalshi mid80
Nov 9 03:22ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 03:26ZKalshi mid81
Nov 9 03:52ZKalshi mid82
Nov 9 03:54ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 04:00ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 04:02ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 04:04ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 04:20ZKalshi mid83
Nov 9 04:58ZKalshi mid84
Nov 9 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.082
Nov 9 05:00ZKalshi mid84

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 83% to 84%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 8 23:00ZNov 9 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 8 23:00ZNov 9 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-08T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-08T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T00Z
PBE72%82%
Market at capture83%84%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Houston
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
87c56c15-a482-454a-b907-91acfe8822e6
Compared with
72ec85c8-3158-403b-bb35-82db9fdd6b95
Captured
Nov 9 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 9 05:00Z
Market observation
84% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIHOU (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIHOU (WFO HGX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012918
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-11-09, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-10T04:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIHOU in Houston in Nov 9, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.