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Milwaukee — photograph (Photo: Bfkenney · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 13, 2026: PBE moves “Milwaukee” down to 16% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 12 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Bfkenney · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%16%

Milwaukee · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−20 pts
Market at capture19%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 13, 2026?

Milwaukee · PRE-WINDOW

PBE16%0 pts since publication
Kalshi19%0 pts since publication
Gap−3

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Milwaukee” from 36% to 16% (−20 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 12 11:00Z → Oct 12 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 12 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 12 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 12 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 12 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Milwaukee” from 36% to 16%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 21% to 12%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 38% to 14%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 33% to 26%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 42% to 21%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain21%12%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain38%14%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window33%26%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window42%21%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Milwaukee”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12 09:12ZOct 12 13:06ZOct 12 17:00Z36%16%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 15% · Oct 12 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 12 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 16% · Oct 12 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 12 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.015
Oct 12 10:30ZKalshi mid7
Oct 12 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.036
Oct 12 12:00ZKalshi mid25
Oct 12 12:02ZKalshi mid24
Oct 12 12:06ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 12:16ZKalshi mid22
Oct 12 12:24ZKalshi mid23
Oct 12 12:26ZKalshi mid22
Oct 12 12:30ZKalshi mid22
Oct 12 13:00ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:02ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:04ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:06ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:08ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:10ZKalshi mid19
Oct 12 13:20ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:22ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:36ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 13:40ZKalshi mid19
Oct 12 13:52ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 14:00ZKalshi mid19
Oct 12 14:12ZKalshi mid19
Oct 12 14:28ZKalshi mid17
Oct 12 14:30ZKalshi mid16
Oct 12 14:32ZKalshi mid16
Oct 12 14:38ZKalshi mid16
Oct 12 14:52ZKalshi mid15
Oct 12 14:56ZKalshi mid14
Oct 12 14:58ZKalshi mid14
Oct 12 15:00ZKalshi mid16
Oct 12 15:10ZKalshi mid15
Oct 12 15:18ZKalshi mid13
Oct 12 15:20ZKalshi mid13
Oct 12 15:34ZKalshi mid17
Oct 12 15:38ZKalshi mid17
Oct 12 15:42ZKalshi mid18
Oct 12 16:01ZKalshi mid19
Oct 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.016
Oct 12 17:00ZKalshi mid19

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 12 11:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 12 11:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T12Z
PBE36%16%
Market at capture—19%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Milwaukee
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
923f86e6-975f-4506-85f5-e854d7741f19
Compared with
e82c65b2-c30c-4d40-80f6-ea8a3cf78da0
Captured
Oct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 12 17:00Z
Market observation
19% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMKE (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMKE (WFO MKX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014839
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-13, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-14T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMKE in Milwaukee in Oct 13, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.