PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 14, 2026: PBE moves “Austin” up to 52% from 39%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 13. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 13 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

39%52%

Austin · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+13 pts
Market at capture44%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 14, 2026?

Austin · PRE-WINDOW

PBE52%0 pts since publication
Kalshi43%−1 pts since publication
Gap+9

RESEARCH PBE Oct 13 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Austin” from 39% to 52% (+13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 13 11:00Z → Oct 13 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 44% to 44%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 13 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 13 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 13 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 13 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Austin” from 39% to 52%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 21% to 26%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 39% to 54%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 36% to 42%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 48% to 63%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain21%26%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain39%54%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window36%42%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window48%63%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 13 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Austin”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 13 09:12ZOct 13 13:06ZOct 13 17:00Z39%52%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 13 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 39% · Oct 13 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 52% · Oct 13 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 13 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 13 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.036
Oct 13 09:22ZKalshi mid71
Oct 13 09:24ZKalshi mid70
Oct 13 09:26ZKalshi mid70
Oct 13 09:32ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 09:36ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 09:42ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 09:44ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 09:46ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 09:48ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 10:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 10:02ZKalshi mid46
Oct 13 10:04ZKalshi mid46
Oct 13 10:06ZKalshi mid45
Oct 13 10:10ZKalshi mid46
Oct 13 10:12ZKalshi mid45
Oct 13 10:14ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 10:32ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 10:42ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.039
Oct 13 11:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 11:04ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 11:32ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 11:36ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 11:40ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 11:54ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 12:00ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 12:08ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 12:12ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 12:14ZKalshi mid46
Oct 13 12:16ZKalshi mid47
Oct 13 12:20ZKalshi mid48
Oct 13 12:22ZKalshi mid47
Oct 13 12:34ZKalshi mid48
Oct 13 12:44ZKalshi mid49
Oct 13 12:46ZKalshi mid50
Oct 13 12:48ZKalshi mid52
Oct 13 12:50ZKalshi mid52
Oct 13 13:00ZKalshi mid52
Oct 13 13:02ZKalshi mid54
Oct 13 13:04ZKalshi mid54
Oct 13 13:06ZKalshi mid54
Oct 13 13:24ZKalshi mid52
Oct 13 13:26ZKalshi mid50
Oct 13 13:28ZKalshi mid50
Oct 13 13:46ZKalshi mid48
Oct 13 13:56ZKalshi mid48
Oct 13 14:00ZKalshi mid48
Oct 13 14:06ZKalshi mid47
Oct 13 14:08ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 14:10ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 14:16ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 14:24ZKalshi mid42
Oct 13 14:52ZKalshi mid41
Oct 13 14:54ZKalshi mid40
Oct 13 14:58ZKalshi mid40
Oct 13 15:00ZKalshi mid45
Oct 13 15:02ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 15:14ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 15:16ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 15:32ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 15:54ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 16:00ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 16:06ZKalshi mid43
Oct 13 16:14ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 16:24ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 16:50ZKalshi mid44
Oct 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.052
Oct 13 17:00ZKalshi mid44

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 44% to 44%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 13 11:00ZOct 13 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 13 11:00ZOct 13 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-13T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-13T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-13T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-13T12Z
PBE39%52%
Market at capture44%44%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Austin
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
7c5be1c8-7dad-41b6-93d7-444ea0b86e0a
Compared with
09648c02-9754-408d-833f-fe47ea7cf927
Captured
Oct 13 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 13 17:00Z
Market observation
44% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-15T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Oct 14, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.