PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Get All Access
Dallas — photograph (Photo: Gattacal · CC BY-SA 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 16, 2026: PBE moves “Dallas” up to 42% from 28%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:01 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 15 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Gattacal · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

28%42%

Dallas · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:01 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture56%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 16, 2026?

Dallas · PRE-WINDOW

PBE46%+4 pts since publication
Kalshi84%+42 pts since publication
Gap−38

RESEARCH PBE Oct 15 23:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Dallas” from 28% to 42% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 15 11:00Z → Oct 15 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 42% to 56%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 15 11:01Z (data cutoff Oct 15 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 15 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 15 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Dallas” from 28% to 42%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 13% to 31%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 38% to 40%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 24% to 36%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 40% to 42%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain13%31%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain38%40%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window24%36%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window40%42%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Dallas”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 15 09:12ZOct 15 13:06ZOct 15 17:00Z28%42%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 15 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 28% · Oct 15 11:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 42% · Oct 15 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 15 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.024
Oct 15 09:14ZKalshi mid42
Oct 15 09:16ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 09:18ZKalshi mid45
Oct 15 09:20ZKalshi mid48
Oct 15 09:24ZKalshi mid50
Oct 15 09:26ZKalshi mid51
Oct 15 09:28ZKalshi mid48
Oct 15 09:30ZKalshi mid51
Oct 15 09:32ZKalshi mid49
Oct 15 09:34ZKalshi mid50
Oct 15 09:43ZKalshi mid48
Oct 15 09:49ZKalshi mid46
Oct 15 09:58ZKalshi mid41
Oct 15 10:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 10:10ZKalshi mid41
Oct 15 10:12ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 10:14ZKalshi mid46
Oct 15 10:16ZKalshi mid42
Oct 15 10:32ZKalshi mid41
Oct 15 10:36ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 10:38ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 10:40ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 10:42ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 10:44ZKalshi mid42
Oct 15 11:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.028
Oct 15 11:01ZKalshi mid42
Oct 15 11:02ZKalshi mid42
Oct 15 11:10ZKalshi mid41
Oct 15 11:24ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 11:28ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 11:38ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 11:40ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 11:42ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 12:02ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 13:06ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 13:24ZKalshi mid43
Oct 15 13:50ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 13:52ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 14:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 15 14:12ZKalshi mid46
Oct 15 14:16ZKalshi mid46
Oct 15 14:42ZKalshi mid46
Oct 15 14:48ZKalshi mid48
Oct 15 14:58ZKalshi mid49
Oct 15 15:00ZKalshi mid49
Oct 15 15:32ZKalshi mid49
Oct 15 15:46ZKalshi mid49
Oct 15 15:58ZKalshi mid50
Oct 15 16:00ZKalshi mid50
Oct 15 16:02ZKalshi mid51
Oct 15 16:04ZKalshi mid52
Oct 15 16:16ZKalshi mid53
Oct 15 16:24ZKalshi mid53
Oct 15 16:36ZKalshi mid56
Oct 15 16:54ZKalshi mid56
Oct 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.042
Oct 15 17:00ZKalshi mid56

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 42% to 56%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 15 11:01ZOct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 15 11:00ZOct 15 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T12Z
PBE28%42%
Market at capture42%56%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Dallas
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
097df72b-f76a-4f84-a505-478de3657d47
Compared with
8de6f220-56d8-41b1-81d7-49c486956203
Captured
Oct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 15 17:00Z
Market observation
56% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIDFW (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDFW (WFO FWD); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003927
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-17T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIDFW in Dallas in Oct 16, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.