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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 19, 2026: PBE moves “Albuquerque” down to 25% from 42%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 18. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 18 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

42%25%

Albuquerque · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−17 pts
Market at capture35%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 19, 2026?

Albuquerque · PRE-WINDOW

PBE25%0 pts since publication
Kalshi34%−1 pts since publication
Gap−9

RESEARCH PBE Oct 18 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Albuquerque” from 42% to 25% (−17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 18 11:00Z → Oct 18 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 18 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 18 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 18 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 18 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Albuquerque” from 42% to 25%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 53% to 27%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 56% to 34%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 35% to 31%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain53%27%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window56%34%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window35%31%yes
Guidance lead time25h19h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 18 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Albuquerque”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 18 09:12ZOct 18 13:06ZOct 18 17:00Z42%25%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 18 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 42% · Oct 18 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 25% · Oct 18 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 18 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 18 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.029
Oct 18 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.042
Oct 18 12:06ZKalshi mid28
Oct 18 12:08ZKalshi mid27
Oct 18 12:10ZKalshi mid26
Oct 18 12:14ZKalshi mid25
Oct 18 12:16ZKalshi mid25
Oct 18 12:24ZKalshi mid26
Oct 18 12:26ZKalshi mid26
Oct 18 12:36ZKalshi mid26
Oct 18 12:40ZKalshi mid25
Oct 18 12:42ZKalshi mid25
Oct 18 12:58ZKalshi mid28
Oct 18 13:00ZKalshi mid29
Oct 18 13:32ZKalshi mid29
Oct 18 13:52ZKalshi mid30
Oct 18 14:00ZKalshi mid30
Oct 18 14:02ZKalshi mid29
Oct 18 14:18ZKalshi mid43
Oct 18 14:20ZKalshi mid43
Oct 18 14:24ZKalshi mid44
Oct 18 14:32ZKalshi mid47
Oct 18 14:34ZKalshi mid47
Oct 18 14:38ZKalshi mid48
Oct 18 14:42ZKalshi mid46
Oct 18 14:44ZKalshi mid46
Oct 18 14:46ZKalshi mid45
Oct 18 14:50ZKalshi mid47
Oct 18 14:52ZKalshi mid47
Oct 18 15:00ZKalshi mid47
Oct 18 15:08ZKalshi mid46
Oct 18 15:14ZKalshi mid49
Oct 18 15:16ZKalshi mid48
Oct 18 15:22ZKalshi mid46
Oct 18 15:24ZKalshi mid45
Oct 18 15:26ZKalshi mid45
Oct 18 15:32ZKalshi mid44
Oct 18 15:42ZKalshi mid44
Oct 18 15:44ZKalshi mid47
Oct 18 15:46ZKalshi mid46
Oct 18 15:52ZKalshi mid40
Oct 18 15:56ZKalshi mid39
Oct 18 15:58ZKalshi mid39
Oct 18 16:00ZKalshi mid39
Oct 18 16:02ZKalshi mid41
Oct 18 16:06ZKalshi mid40
Oct 18 16:08ZKalshi mid39
Oct 18 16:10ZKalshi mid40
Oct 18 16:26ZKalshi mid39
Oct 18 16:32ZKalshi mid35
Oct 18 16:34ZKalshi mid35
Oct 18 16:36ZKalshi mid34
Oct 18 16:42ZKalshi mid34
Oct 18 16:58ZKalshi mid35
Oct 18 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.025
Oct 18 17:00ZKalshi mid35

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 18 11:00ZOct 18 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 18 11:00ZOct 18 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-18T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-18T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-18T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-18T12Z
PBE42%25%
Market at capture—35%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Albuquerque
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
d3d0f3d5-6536-46b0-be3f-2fe6d6ab0603
Compared with
b13aaa87-f039-4181-95f4-2ca7728d56c5
Captured
Oct 18 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 18 17:00Z
Market observation
35% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIABQ (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIABQ (WFO ABQ); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023050
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-19, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-20T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIABQ in Albuquerque in Oct 19, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.