WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 22, 2026: PBE moves “Miami” up to 46% from 35%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 21. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 21, 2026 at 17:14 UTCModel data as of Oct 21 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

35%46%

Miami · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+11 pts

Market at capture45%

Inputs changed4primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 22, 2026?

Miami · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday41%−5 pts since publication

Kalshi34%−12 pts since publication

Gap+7

At KMIA: high so far 75.2°F · latest 75.2°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 22 13:15Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 22 10:00Z PBE 36% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 22 09:15Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Miami” from 35% to 46% (+11 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 21 11:00Z → Oct 21 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 46% to 45%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 21 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 21 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 21 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 21 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Miami” from 35% to 46%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 27% to 31%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 14% to 22%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 64% to 64%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 32% to 53%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain	27%	31%	yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain	14%	22%	yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window	64%	64%	yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window	32%	53%	yes
Guidance lead time	23h	17h	—

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 21 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Miami”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 21 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 21 09:22Z	PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0	37
Oct 21 09:30Z	Kalshi mid	49
Oct 21 09:46Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 21 09:48Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 21 09:50Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 09:52Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 21 09:54Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 09:56Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 21 09:58Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 10:00Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 10:02Z	Kalshi mid	43
Oct 21 10:04Z	Kalshi mid	43
Oct 21 10:06Z	Kalshi mid	43
Oct 21 10:20Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 10:22Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 10:54Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 21 10:56Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 11:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0	35
Oct 21 11:00Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 11:04Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 11:06Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 11:16Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 21 11:18Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 21 11:22Z	Kalshi mid	49
Oct 21 11:50Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 11:52Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 12:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 12:04Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 12:06Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 12:08Z	Kalshi mid	43
Oct 21 12:10Z	Kalshi mid	42
Oct 21 12:12Z	Kalshi mid	42
Oct 21 12:18Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 21 12:30Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 21 12:32Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 12:54Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 21 13:00Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 21 13:02Z	Kalshi mid	49
Oct 21 13:08Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 13:16Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 13:18Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 13:50Z	Kalshi mid	40
Oct 21 13:52Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 14:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 14:06Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 14:16Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 14:46Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 14:54Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 15:18Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 15:26Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 15:28Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 15:40Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 15:46Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 21 15:48Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 21 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 21 16:06Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 16:24Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 21 16:56Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 16:58Z	Kalshi mid	44
Oct 21 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0	46
Oct 21 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	45

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 46% to 45%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 21 11:00Z	Oct 21 17:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 21 11:00Z	Oct 21 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-21T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-21T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-21T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-21T12Z
PBE	35%	46%
Market at capture	46%	45%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Miami

Model: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: b301a1cd-1029-49b8-9a37-60ba18c0216d
Compared with: b9f6fe59-c178-4832-9bf4-f5d43d71574e
Captured: Oct 21 17:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 21 17:00Z
Market observation: 45% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement: Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-22, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding: Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions: Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-23T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs

If the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami in Oct 22, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.