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Denver — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 24, 2026: PBE moves “Denver” down to 38% from 52%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:02 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 23. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 23 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

52%38%

Denver · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 17:02 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−14 pts
Market at capture55%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 24, 2026?

Denver · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday33%−5 pts since publication
Kalshi6%−49 pts since publication
Gap+27

At KDEN: high so far 57.2°F · latest 42.8°F () · rain so far 0.00 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 25 03:10Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 24 12:20Z PBE 70% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 24 12:20Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 24 17:15Z PBE 80% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 24 17:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 24 21:05Z PBE 69% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 24 20:20Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 25 00:25Z PBE 57% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 25 00:25Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 25 02:00Z PBE 44% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 25 00:25Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 25 03:10Z PBE 33% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 25 02:15Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Denver” from 52% to 38% (−14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 23 17:00Z → Oct 23 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 55% to 55%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 23 17:02Z (data cutoff Oct 23 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 23 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 23 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Denver” from 52% to 38%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 39% to 26%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 32% to 30%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 60% to 43%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 50% to 46%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain39%26%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain32%30%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window60%43%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window50%46%yes
Guidance lead time19h13h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 23 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Denver”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23 09:12ZOct 23 16:06ZOct 23 23:00Z52%38%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 51% · Oct 23 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 46% · Oct 23 11:02ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 52% · Oct 23 17:02ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 38% · Oct 23 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 23 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 23 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.051
Oct 23 09:41ZKalshi mid34
Oct 23 09:45ZKalshi mid35
Oct 23 09:46ZKalshi mid37
Oct 23 09:50ZKalshi mid39
Oct 23 10:14ZKalshi mid39
Oct 23 10:18ZKalshi mid40
Oct 23 10:20ZKalshi mid40
Oct 23 10:30ZKalshi mid40
Oct 23 10:50ZKalshi mid44
Oct 23 10:55ZKalshi mid41
Oct 23 11:02ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.046
Oct 23 11:02ZKalshi mid45
Oct 23 11:06ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 11:10ZKalshi mid44
Oct 23 11:46ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 11:48ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 12:00ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 12:04ZKalshi mid45
Oct 23 12:08ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 12:32ZKalshi mid47
Oct 23 12:37ZKalshi mid47
Oct 23 13:00ZKalshi mid47
Oct 23 13:24ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 13:42ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 13:48ZKalshi mid42
Oct 23 13:50ZKalshi mid47
Oct 23 14:17ZKalshi mid47
Oct 23 15:02ZKalshi mid46
Oct 23 15:24ZKalshi mid48
Oct 23 15:44ZKalshi mid50
Oct 23 15:52ZKalshi mid50
Oct 23 16:18ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 17:02ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.052
Oct 23 17:02ZKalshi mid55
Oct 23 17:08ZKalshi mid57
Oct 23 17:17ZKalshi mid57
Oct 23 18:17ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 19:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 19:20ZKalshi mid54
Oct 23 19:38ZKalshi mid53
Oct 23 20:00ZKalshi mid53
Oct 23 20:02ZKalshi mid53
Oct 23 20:04ZKalshi mid52
Oct 23 20:08ZKalshi mid51
Oct 23 20:18ZKalshi mid50
Oct 23 20:20ZKalshi mid50
Oct 23 20:34ZKalshi mid51
Oct 23 20:36ZKalshi mid51
Oct 23 20:44ZKalshi mid49
Oct 23 20:46ZKalshi mid50
Oct 23 20:48ZKalshi mid49
Oct 23 21:00ZKalshi mid53
Oct 23 21:02ZKalshi mid55
Oct 23 21:32ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 21:34ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 21:38ZKalshi mid55
Oct 23 21:40ZKalshi mid55
Oct 23 21:42ZKalshi mid50
Oct 23 21:46ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 21:50ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 22:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 22:03ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 22:06ZKalshi mid56
Oct 23 22:24ZKalshi mid55
Oct 23 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.038
Oct 23 23:00ZKalshi mid55

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 55% to 55%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 23 17:02ZOct 23 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 23 17:00ZOct 23 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-23T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-23T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-23T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-23T18Z
PBE52%38%
Market at capture55%55%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Denver
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
01665ea9-37db-47f1-9e86-cdae3f32755a
Compared with
f2667978-f4de-44bd-b4fe-c5a0ff020db4
Captured
Oct 23 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 23 23:00Z
Market observation
55% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-24, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-25T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIDEN in Denver in Oct 24, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.