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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 26, 2026: PBE moves “Seattle” up to 85% from 74%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:12 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 26. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 26 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

74%85%

Seattle · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 23:12 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+11 pts
Market at capture80%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?

Seattle · WINDOW CLOSED · AWAITING SETTLEMENT

PBE · live intraday99%+14 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KSEA: high so far 57.9°F · latest 51.8°F () · rain so far 0.03 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 26 14:27Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 26 09:27Z PBE 72% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 09:27Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 26 11:02Z PBE 56% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 11:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 26 14:12Z PBE 43% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 12:17Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 26 14:27Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 26 14:27Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Seattle” from 74% to 85% (+11 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 25 23:00Z → Oct 26 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 89% to 80%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 25 23:12Z (data cutoff Oct 25 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 26 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 26 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Seattle” from 74% to 85%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 52% to 62%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 27% to 52%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 93% to 93%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 62% to 78%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain52%62%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain27%52%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window93%93%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window62%78%yes
Guidance lead time14h8h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 26 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Seattle”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 25 09:14ZOct 25 19:07ZOct 26 05:00Z74%85%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 54% · Oct 25 09:14ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 60% · Oct 25 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 73% · Oct 25 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 74% · Oct 25 23:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 85% · Oct 26 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 26 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 25 09:14ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.054
Oct 25 10:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 25 10:04ZKalshi mid56
Oct 25 10:50ZKalshi mid56
Oct 25 10:52ZKalshi mid55
Oct 25 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.060
Oct 25 11:00ZKalshi mid55
Oct 25 11:32ZKalshi mid57
Oct 25 11:34ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 11:38ZKalshi mid62
Oct 25 11:45ZKalshi mid62
Oct 25 11:50ZKalshi mid59
Oct 25 11:56ZKalshi mid58
Oct 25 11:58ZKalshi mid59
Oct 25 12:18ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 12:20ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 12:24ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 12:26ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 12:30ZKalshi mid62
Oct 25 12:34ZKalshi mid62
Oct 25 12:36ZKalshi mid61
Oct 25 12:40ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 12:42ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 12:44ZKalshi mid69
Oct 25 12:46ZKalshi mid69
Oct 25 12:48ZKalshi mid68
Oct 25 12:58ZKalshi mid68
Oct 25 13:00ZKalshi mid68
Oct 25 13:02ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 13:20ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 13:25ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 13:28ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 13:37ZKalshi mid71
Oct 25 14:02ZKalshi mid74
Oct 25 14:06ZKalshi mid71
Oct 25 14:10ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 14:12ZKalshi mid71
Oct 25 14:14ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 14:20ZKalshi mid69
Oct 25 14:36ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 14:38ZKalshi mid65
Oct 25 14:40ZKalshi mid63
Oct 25 14:42ZKalshi mid64
Oct 25 14:48ZKalshi mid64
Oct 25 14:51ZKalshi mid64
Oct 25 14:54ZKalshi mid64
Oct 25 15:00ZKalshi mid64
Oct 25 15:10ZKalshi mid65
Oct 25 15:14ZKalshi mid67
Oct 25 15:14ZKalshi mid69
Oct 25 15:34ZKalshi mid66
Oct 25 15:36ZKalshi mid65
Oct 25 15:56ZKalshi mid65
Oct 25 16:00ZKalshi mid65
Oct 25 16:04ZKalshi mid67
Oct 25 16:08ZKalshi mid68
Oct 25 16:13ZKalshi mid68
Oct 25 16:16ZKalshi mid72
Oct 25 16:18ZKalshi mid70
Oct 25 16:20ZKalshi mid71
Oct 25 16:22ZKalshi mid72
Oct 25 16:44ZKalshi mid73
Oct 25 16:47ZKalshi mid74
Oct 25 16:52ZKalshi mid75
Oct 25 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.073
Oct 25 17:00ZKalshi mid75
Oct 25 17:03ZKalshi mid77
Oct 25 17:14ZKalshi mid78
Oct 25 17:16ZKalshi mid79
Oct 25 17:18ZKalshi mid79
Oct 25 17:38ZKalshi mid82
Oct 25 17:40ZKalshi mid82
Oct 25 17:42ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 17:46ZKalshi mid78
Oct 25 17:48ZKalshi mid77
Oct 25 17:52ZKalshi mid79
Oct 25 17:54ZKalshi mid79
Oct 25 17:56ZKalshi mid78
Oct 25 18:00ZKalshi mid78
Oct 25 18:18ZKalshi mid78
Oct 25 18:38ZKalshi mid82
Oct 25 18:40ZKalshi mid82
Oct 25 18:50ZKalshi mid81
Oct 25 18:54ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 19:00ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 19:04ZKalshi mid77
Oct 25 19:08ZKalshi mid76
Oct 25 19:14ZKalshi mid77
Oct 25 19:26ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 19:28ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 19:36ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 20:00ZKalshi mid82
Oct 25 20:04ZKalshi mid81
Oct 25 20:12ZKalshi mid80
Oct 25 20:16ZKalshi mid81
Oct 25 20:18ZKalshi mid83
Oct 25 20:20ZKalshi mid83
Oct 25 20:24ZKalshi mid84
Oct 25 20:50ZKalshi mid86
Oct 25 20:58ZKalshi mid89
Oct 25 21:00ZKalshi mid88
Oct 25 21:02ZKalshi mid88
Oct 25 21:08ZKalshi mid88
Oct 25 21:21ZKalshi mid88
Oct 25 21:30ZKalshi mid88
Oct 25 21:52ZKalshi mid90
Oct 25 22:00ZKalshi mid90
Oct 25 22:44ZKalshi mid90
Oct 25 22:50ZKalshi mid90
Oct 25 22:52ZKalshi mid89
Oct 25 23:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.074
Oct 25 23:12ZKalshi mid89
Oct 25 23:58ZKalshi mid89
Oct 25 23:59ZKalshi mid88
Oct 26 00:16ZKalshi mid87
Oct 26 00:34ZKalshi mid87
Oct 26 00:52ZKalshi mid88
Oct 26 00:56ZKalshi mid86
Oct 26 00:58ZKalshi mid86
Oct 26 01:00ZKalshi mid86
Oct 26 01:12ZKalshi mid87
Oct 26 01:28ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 01:32ZKalshi mid85
Oct 26 01:40ZKalshi mid86
Oct 26 01:42ZKalshi mid85
Oct 26 02:00ZKalshi mid87
Oct 26 02:06ZKalshi mid85
Oct 26 02:08ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 02:32ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 02:38ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 02:49ZKalshi mid83
Oct 26 02:58ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 03:00ZKalshi mid83
Oct 26 03:07ZKalshi mid83
Oct 26 03:12ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 03:16ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 03:22ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 03:40ZKalshi mid85
Oct 26 03:44ZKalshi mid83
Oct 26 03:48ZKalshi mid83
Oct 26 03:49ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 03:54ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 03:56ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 03:58ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 04:00ZKalshi mid84
Oct 26 04:04ZKalshi mid85
Oct 26 04:10ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 04:20ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 04:42ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 04:46ZKalshi mid82
Oct 26 04:48ZKalshi mid81
Oct 26 04:50ZKalshi mid80
Oct 26 04:52ZKalshi mid80
Oct 26 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.085
Oct 26 05:00ZKalshi mid80

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 89% to 80%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 25 23:12ZOct 26 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 25 23:00ZOct 26 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-25T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-25T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T00Z
PBE74%85%
Market at capture89%80%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Seattle
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
4cde347a-ab6c-402c-af82-1d58289d40ce
Compared with
c703278c-d3e9-4c01-9be2-d56f51a40d68
Captured
Oct 26 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 26 05:00Z
Market observation
80% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLISEA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLISEA (WFO SEW); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00024233
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-26, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-8)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-27T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLISEA in Seattle in Oct 26, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.