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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 27, 2026: PBE moves “College Station” down to 11% from 26%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 26. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 26 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

26%11%

College Station · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−15 pts
Market at capture20%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?

College Station · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday5%−6 pts since publication
Kalshi8%−4 pts since publication
Gap−3

At KCLL: high so far 78.8°F · latest 78.8°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 19:39Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “College Station” from 26% to 11% (−15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 26 11:00Z → Oct 26 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 12% to 20%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 26 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 26 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 26 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 26 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “College Station” from 26% to 11%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 23% to 16%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 15% to 5%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 46% to 32%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 24% to 12%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain23%16%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain15%5%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window46%32%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window24%12%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 26 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“College Station”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26 09:10ZOct 26 13:05ZOct 26 17:00Z26%11%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 31% · Oct 26 09:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 26% · Oct 26 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 26 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 26 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 26 09:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.031
Oct 26 09:20ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 10:00ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.026
Oct 26 11:00ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 11:24ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 11:42ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 11:44ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 11:52ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 11:56ZKalshi mid10
Oct 26 12:00ZKalshi mid10
Oct 26 12:14ZKalshi mid10
Oct 26 13:00ZKalshi mid10
Oct 26 13:26ZKalshi mid13
Oct 26 13:34ZKalshi mid13
Oct 26 13:38ZKalshi mid12
Oct 26 13:40ZKalshi mid15
Oct 26 13:44ZKalshi mid16
Oct 26 13:48ZKalshi mid14
Oct 26 14:00ZKalshi mid14
Oct 26 14:04ZKalshi mid14
Oct 26 14:12ZKalshi mid14
Oct 26 14:18ZKalshi mid18
Oct 26 14:20ZKalshi mid17
Oct 26 14:54ZKalshi mid17
Oct 26 15:00ZKalshi mid17
Oct 26 15:40ZKalshi mid19
Oct 26 15:56ZKalshi mid18
Oct 26 16:01ZKalshi mid18
Oct 26 16:08ZKalshi mid19
Oct 26 16:18ZKalshi mid18
Oct 26 16:42ZKalshi mid17
Oct 26 16:46ZKalshi mid18
Oct 26 16:50ZKalshi mid20
Oct 26 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.011
Oct 26 17:00ZKalshi mid20

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 12% to 20%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 26 11:00ZOct 26 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 26 11:00ZOct 26 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T12Z
PBE26%11%
Market at capture12%20%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

College Station
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
7baccc2f-b75c-4c5d-95c9-9d169d31ef8e
Compared with
343d89d5-85c6-482b-96b1-7900ed9b216b
Captured
Oct 26 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 26 17:00Z
Market observation
20% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLICLL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLICLL (WFO HGX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003904
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-27, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-28T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLICLL in College Station in Oct 27, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.