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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 27, 2026: PBE moves “Austin” down to 24% from 37%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 27. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

37%24%

Austin · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture22%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 27, 2026?

Austin · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday1%−23 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 82.9°F · latest 62.6°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 28 05:13Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 27 17:18Z PBE 6% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 27 17:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Austin” from 37% to 24% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 26 23:00Z → Oct 27 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 28% to 22%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 26 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 26 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 27 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 27 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Austin” from 37% to 24%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 43% to 21%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 14% to 16%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 63% to 37%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 23% to 29%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain43%21%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain14%16%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window63%37%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window23%29%yes
Guidance lead time12h6h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 27 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Austin”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26 09:10ZOct 26 19:05ZOct 27 05:00Z37%24%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 40% · Oct 26 09:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 26 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 38% · Oct 26 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Oct 26 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Oct 27 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 26 09:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.040
Oct 26 09:52ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 10:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 10:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 10:12ZKalshi mid32
Oct 26 10:16ZKalshi mid30
Oct 26 10:18ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 10:20ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 10:22ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 10:34ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.041
Oct 26 11:00ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 11:50ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 11:52ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 12:00ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 12:08ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 12:14ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 12:16ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 12:20ZKalshi mid32
Oct 26 12:30ZKalshi mid32
Oct 26 12:32ZKalshi mid32
Oct 26 12:38ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 13:00ZKalshi mid32
Oct 26 13:10ZKalshi mid30
Oct 26 13:12ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 13:18ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 13:26ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 13:28ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 13:30ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 13:32ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 13:34ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 13:40ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 13:44ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 14:00ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 14:02ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 14:04ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 14:12ZKalshi mid24
Oct 26 14:18ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 14:20ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 14:22ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 14:28ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 14:30ZKalshi mid30
Oct 26 14:32ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 14:34ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 14:36ZKalshi mid32
Oct 26 14:54ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 15:00ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 15:30ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 15:56ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 16:01ZKalshi mid31
Oct 26 16:20ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 16:22ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 16:26ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 16:28ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 16:30ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 16:36ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 16:38ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 16:41ZKalshi mid24
Oct 26 16:44ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 16:48ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 16:56ZKalshi mid22
Oct 26 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.038
Oct 26 17:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 26 17:02ZKalshi mid22
Oct 26 17:04ZKalshi mid22
Oct 26 17:08ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 18:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 18:04ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 18:08ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 18:16ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 18:20ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 18:24ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 18:28ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 18:34ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 19:00ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 19:12ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 19:16ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 20:01ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 20:48ZKalshi mid36
Oct 26 21:00ZKalshi mid35
Oct 26 21:02ZKalshi mid34
Oct 26 21:04ZKalshi mid33
Oct 26 21:06ZKalshi mid30
Oct 26 21:08ZKalshi mid29
Oct 26 21:10ZKalshi mid21
Oct 26 21:12ZKalshi mid23
Oct 26 21:14ZKalshi mid24
Oct 26 21:22ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 21:24ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 21:26ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 21:31ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 21:38ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 21:42ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 22:01ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 22:06ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 22:26ZKalshi mid27
Oct 26 22:34ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 22:44ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.037
Oct 26 23:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 23:06ZKalshi mid25
Oct 26 23:08ZKalshi mid26
Oct 26 23:24ZKalshi mid29
Oct 26 23:26ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 23:28ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 23:40ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 23:42ZKalshi mid28
Oct 26 23:48ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 00:00ZKalshi mid30
Oct 27 00:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 00:06ZKalshi mid30
Oct 27 00:08ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 00:10ZKalshi mid27
Oct 27 00:14ZKalshi mid27
Oct 27 00:20ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 00:50ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 01:00ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 01:19ZKalshi mid24
Oct 27 01:28ZKalshi mid24
Oct 27 01:30ZKalshi mid24
Oct 27 01:42ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 02:10ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 02:50ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 03:00ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 03:06ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 03:18ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 03:30ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 03:44ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 03:46ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 03:50ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 03:54ZKalshi mid29
Oct 27 04:00ZKalshi mid30
Oct 27 04:10ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 04:20ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 04:22ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 04:30ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 04:54ZKalshi mid24
Oct 27 04:56ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 04:58ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.024
Oct 27 05:00ZKalshi mid22

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 28% to 22%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 26 23:00ZOct 27 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 26 23:00ZOct 27 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-26T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-26T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T00Z
PBE37%24%
Market at capture28%22%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Austin
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
bf37963a-5542-47a7-a5cf-580fd4914ee1
Compared with
75762e94-c1dc-43ad-8504-864dee890923
Captured
Oct 27 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 27 05:00Z
Market observation
22% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-27, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-28T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Oct 27, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.