PropBetEdgePREDICTIONS
Live engineMonitoring live data, models, and market activity. PropBetEdge NetworkNetwork Account Command Center Get All Access
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 28, 2026: PBE moves “College Station” down to 29% from 42%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 27. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

42%29%

College Station · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture19%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 28, 2026?

College Station · PRE-WINDOW

PBE29%0 pts since publication
Kalshi24%−2 pts since publication
Gap+5

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “College Station” from 42% to 29% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 27 11:00Z → Oct 27 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 26% to 19%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 27 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 27 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 27 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 27 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “College Station” from 42% to 29%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 32% to 27%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 23% to 13%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 64% to 55%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 31% to 25%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain32%27%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain23%13%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window64%55%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window31%25%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 27 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“College Station”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 27 09:10ZOct 27 13:05ZOct 27 17:00Z42%29%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 38% · Oct 27 09:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 42% · Oct 27 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 27 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 27 09:10ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.038
Oct 27 10:08ZKalshi mid27
Oct 27 10:18ZKalshi mid27
Oct 27 10:20ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 10:22ZKalshi mid28
Oct 27 10:26ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 10:28ZKalshi mid25
Oct 27 10:54ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.042
Oct 27 11:00ZKalshi mid26
Oct 27 11:04ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 11:08ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 11:10ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 11:36ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 12:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 12:31ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 13:04ZKalshi mid20
Oct 27 13:13ZKalshi mid19
Oct 27 13:34ZKalshi mid18
Oct 27 13:50ZKalshi mid19
Oct 27 13:52ZKalshi mid21
Oct 27 13:54ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 13:56ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 13:58ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 14:00ZKalshi mid23
Oct 27 14:04ZKalshi mid21
Oct 27 14:06ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 14:08ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 14:12ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 14:40ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 14:42ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 15:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 27 15:02ZKalshi mid21
Oct 27 15:04ZKalshi mid21
Oct 27 16:00ZKalshi mid21
Oct 27 16:02ZKalshi mid21
Oct 27 16:16ZKalshi mid20
Oct 27 16:20ZKalshi mid19
Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.029
Oct 27 17:00ZKalshi mid19

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 26% to 19%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 27 11:00ZOct 27 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 27 11:00ZOct 27 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T12Z
PBE42%29%
Market at capture26%19%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

College Station
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
5332eba8-77d0-470c-862e-82f907ed48c6
Compared with
95a80299-4156-4764-966d-bcb0825d1d7e
Captured
Oct 27 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 27 17:00Z
Market observation
19% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLICLL (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLICLL (WFO HGX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003904
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-28, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-29T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLICLL in College Station in Oct 28, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.