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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “Albuquerque” up to 46% from 29%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 29. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 29 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence

29%46%

Albuquerque · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture63%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 30, 2026?

Albuquerque · PRE-WINDOW

PBE46%0 pts since publication
Kalshi57%+18 pts since publication
Gap−10

RESEARCH PBE Oct 29 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Albuquerque” from 29% to 46% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 29 11:00Z → Oct 29 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 39% to 63%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 29 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 29 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 29 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 29 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Albuquerque” from 29% to 46%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 14% to 33%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 33% to 37%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 28% to 48%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 45% to 46%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain14%33%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain33%37%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window28%48%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window45%46%yes
Guidance lead time25h19h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 29 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Albuquerque”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 29 09:12ZOct 29 13:06ZOct 29 17:00Z29%46%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 41% · Oct 29 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 29 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 46% · Oct 29 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 29 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 29 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.041
Oct 29 09:24ZKalshi mid38
Oct 29 09:30ZKalshi mid37
Oct 29 09:36ZKalshi mid33
Oct 29 09:38ZKalshi mid32
Oct 29 09:58ZKalshi mid31
Oct 29 10:04ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 10:06ZKalshi mid46
Oct 29 10:08ZKalshi mid39
Oct 29 10:10ZKalshi mid38
Oct 29 10:14ZKalshi mid39
Oct 29 10:18ZKalshi mid36
Oct 29 10:30ZKalshi mid36
Oct 29 10:34ZKalshi mid37
Oct 29 10:38ZKalshi mid37
Oct 29 10:50ZKalshi mid38
Oct 29 10:52ZKalshi mid39
Oct 29 10:56ZKalshi mid35
Oct 29 10:58ZKalshi mid37
Oct 29 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.029
Oct 29 11:00ZKalshi mid39
Oct 29 11:02ZKalshi mid42
Oct 29 11:06ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 11:08ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 11:10ZKalshi mid52
Oct 29 11:14ZKalshi mid53
Oct 29 11:58ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 12:00ZKalshi mid59
Oct 29 12:02ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 12:04ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 12:06ZKalshi mid55
Oct 29 12:12ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 12:14ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 12:18ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 12:24ZKalshi mid55
Oct 29 12:40ZKalshi mid51
Oct 29 12:42ZKalshi mid51
Oct 29 12:44ZKalshi mid50
Oct 29 12:46ZKalshi mid49
Oct 29 12:48ZKalshi mid72
Oct 29 12:52ZKalshi mid62
Oct 29 12:58ZKalshi mid63
Oct 29 13:00ZKalshi mid63
Oct 29 13:10ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 13:12ZKalshi mid49
Oct 29 13:14ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 13:18ZKalshi mid47
Oct 29 13:28ZKalshi mid46
Oct 29 13:32ZKalshi mid45
Oct 29 13:36ZKalshi mid49
Oct 29 13:42ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 14:00ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 14:02ZKalshi mid54
Oct 29 14:06ZKalshi mid53
Oct 29 14:24ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 14:38ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 14:42ZKalshi mid57
Oct 29 14:50ZKalshi mid59
Oct 29 15:00ZKalshi mid59
Oct 29 15:06ZKalshi mid56
Oct 29 15:08ZKalshi mid53
Oct 29 15:10ZKalshi mid51
Oct 29 15:14ZKalshi mid50
Oct 29 15:16ZKalshi mid50
Oct 29 15:24ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 15:26ZKalshi mid48
Oct 29 15:34ZKalshi mid47
Oct 29 15:36ZKalshi mid46
Oct 29 15:38ZKalshi mid47
Oct 29 15:46ZKalshi mid58
Oct 29 15:48ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 15:56ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 16:00ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 16:02ZKalshi mid60
Oct 29 16:12ZKalshi mid59
Oct 29 16:50ZKalshi mid58
Oct 29 16:56ZKalshi mid59
Oct 29 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.046
Oct 29 17:00ZKalshi mid63

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 39% to 63%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 29 11:00ZOct 29 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 29 11:00ZOct 29 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T12Z
PBE29%46%
Market at capture39%63%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Albuquerque
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
a729b024-ebfd-4338-8ec5-166694942041
Compared with
84ac1aa9-d294-4352-b7f5-d0fea5172d7b
Captured
Oct 29 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 29 17:00Z
Market observation
63% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIABQ (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIABQ (WFO ABQ); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00023050
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-30, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-31T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIABQ in Albuquerque in Oct 30, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.