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Springfield — photograph (Photo: The original uploader was Joelfun at English Wikipedia. · FAL · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026: PBE moves “Springfield” down to 42% from 69%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 30. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 30 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: The original uploader was Joelfun at English Wikipedia. · FAL · Wikimedia Commons

69%42%

Springfield · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−27 pts
Market at capture70%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?

Springfield · PRE-WINDOW

PBE42%0 pts since publication
Kalshi77%+21 pts since publication
Gap−35

RESEARCH PBE Oct 30 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “Springfield” from 69% to 42% (−27 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 11:00Z → Oct 30 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 56% to 70%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 30 11:00Z (data cutoff Oct 30 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 30 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 30 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “Springfield” from 69% to 42%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 52% to 28%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 47% to 31%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 68% to 42%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 68% to 51%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain52%28%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain47%31%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window68%42%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window68%51%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 30 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“Springfield”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30 09:12ZOct 30 13:06ZOct 30 17:00Z69%42%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 71% · Oct 30 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 69% · Oct 30 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 42% · Oct 30 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 30 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 30 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.071
Oct 30 10:02ZKalshi mid56
Oct 30 10:48ZKalshi mid57
Oct 30 10:50ZKalshi mid59
Oct 30 11:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.069
Oct 30 11:00ZKalshi mid56
Oct 30 11:06ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 12:00ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 12:02ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 12:04ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 12:06ZKalshi mid66
Oct 30 12:44ZKalshi mid66
Oct 30 13:00ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 13:02ZKalshi mid66
Oct 30 13:10ZKalshi mid68
Oct 30 13:12ZKalshi mid68
Oct 30 13:22ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 13:36ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 13:40ZKalshi mid63
Oct 30 13:44ZKalshi mid61
Oct 30 13:46ZKalshi mid61
Oct 30 14:00ZKalshi mid64
Oct 30 14:02ZKalshi mid67
Oct 30 14:10ZKalshi mid63
Oct 30 14:12ZKalshi mid63
Oct 30 14:14ZKalshi mid62
Oct 30 14:18ZKalshi mid60
Oct 30 14:20ZKalshi mid60
Oct 30 14:30ZKalshi mid61
Oct 30 14:38ZKalshi mid66
Oct 30 14:40ZKalshi mid66
Oct 30 14:56ZKalshi mid70
Oct 30 15:00ZKalshi mid70
Oct 30 15:02ZKalshi mid76
Oct 30 15:10ZKalshi mid72
Oct 30 15:12ZKalshi mid65
Oct 30 15:18ZKalshi mid65
Oct 30 15:20ZKalshi mid66
Oct 30 15:28ZKalshi mid72
Oct 30 15:30ZKalshi mid72
Oct 30 15:36ZKalshi mid70
Oct 30 15:38ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 15:40ZKalshi mid69
Oct 30 15:42ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 15:58ZKalshi mid70
Oct 30 16:00ZKalshi mid73
Oct 30 16:02ZKalshi mid70
Oct 30 16:04ZKalshi mid69
Oct 30 16:06ZKalshi mid72
Oct 30 16:08ZKalshi mid71
Oct 30 16:10ZKalshi mid70
Oct 30 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.042
Oct 30 17:00ZKalshi mid70

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 56% to 70%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 30 11:00ZOct 30 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 30 11:00ZOct 30 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T12Z
PBE69%42%
Market at capture56%70%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Springfield
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
1bee315c-6b8e-477f-8e02-94b2dee94001
Compared with
5401764e-a796-4510-b0ab-63730c59e197
Captured
Oct 30 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 30 17:00Z
Market observation
70% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLISGF (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLISGF (WFO SGF); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013995
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-31, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-11-01T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLISGF in Springfield in Oct 31, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.